Market Pulse59Neutral

Garmin Ltd.Opportunity Rank #227(GRMN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$241.90

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$241.90
Price
$187.15
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 23%MOS: $149.72

Fundamental Score

56/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

69/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

61/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) is estimated at $187.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $241.90, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.77% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.86%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) is estimated at $187.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $241.90, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.77% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.86%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$187.15
-22.63% downside
20% margin of safety: $149.72
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.77%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.96%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

56/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
22.6% premium to price
12
FCF Yield
4.4% trailing FCF yield
60
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.0% vs WACC 7.0% (1.0x)
50
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
71
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount.

Narrative Details

69/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (67th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 56 (51 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
35 news sentiment+1.3
4 earnings beat+0.4
12 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

61/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+11.9%
Distance from 52-Week High-10.3%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+8.0%
Price vs 21 EMA30 · -3.2%
Price vs 50 EMA42 · -1.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA63 · +1.7%
3M RS vs SPY88 · +11.9%
6M RS vs SPY71 · +8.0%
Distance from 52W High79 · -10.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Garmin Ltd. is currently trading at a significant premium to its estimated fair value despite constructive fundamentals and a supportive narrative score. The company's near net cash balance sheet and positive free cash flow growth underpin a neutral fundamental outlook with potential for improvement.
Key Risk
The key risk is the deteriorating narrative trend combined with a negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may signal weakening operational efficiency and valuation pressure.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.77%5 Year CAGR: 9.12%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,046$1,904$1,626$1,571$1,034$1,322$1,323$819$1,080$813$802$365$601$687$730$864$807$1,151$989$842$458

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Garmin Ltd.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Garmin Ltd.Technology

Garmin Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes a range of wireless devices in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Australian Continent, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Its Fitness segment offers running and multi-sport watches; cycling products; activity tracking and smartwatch devices; and fitness and cycling accessories. This segment also provides Garmin Connect and Garmin Connect Mobile, which are web and mobile platforms; and Connect IQ, an application development platform. The company's Outdoor segment offers adventure watches, outdoor handhelds, golf devices and mobile apps, and dog tracking and training devices. Its Aviation segment designs, manufactures, and markets various aircraft avionics solutions comprising integrated flight decks, electronic flight displays and instrumentation, navigation and communication products, automatic flight control systems and safety-enhancing technologies, audio control systems, engine indication systems, traffic awareness and avoidance solutions, ADS-B and transponder solutions, weather information and avoidance solutions, datalink and connectivity solutions, portable GPS navigators and wearables, and various services products. The company's Marine segment provides chartplotters and multi-function displays, cartography products, fish finders, sonar products, autopilot systems, radars, compliant instrument displays and sensors, VHF communication radios, handhelds and wearable devices, sailing products, entertainment, digital switching products, and trolling motors. Its Auto segment offers embedded computing models and infotainment systems; personal navigation devices; and cameras. The company sells its products through independent retailers, online retailers, dealers, distributors, installation and repair shops, and original equipment manufacturers, as well as an online webshop, garmin.com. Garmin Ltd. was founded in 1989 and is based in Schaffhausen, Switzerland.