Market Pulse44Neutral

Garmin Ltd.Opportunity Rank #237(GRMN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$236.34

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$236.34
Price
$187.15
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 21%MOS: $149.72

Fundamental Score

57/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

45/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) is estimated at $187.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $236.34, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.77% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.74%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) is estimated at $187.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $236.34, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.77% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.74%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$187.15
-20.81% downside
20% margin of safety: $149.72
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.77%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.16%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

57/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
20.8% premium to price
15
FCF Yield
4.5% trailing FCF yield
62
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.2% vs WACC 7.0% (1.0x)
51
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
71
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (12th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 37m ago
Sources: 42 (39 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
35 news sentiment+0.3
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

45/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-13.1%
Distance from 52-Week High-11.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+6.4%
Price vs 21 EMA49 · -0.2%
Price vs 50 EMA45 · -0.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA44 · -0.7%
3M RS vs SPY10 · -13.1%
6M RS vs SPY67 · +6.4%
Distance from 52W High77 · -11.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Garmin Ltd. shows constructive fundamentals with a neutral score and a strong balance sheet near net cash, but its shares appear fully priced with a current price above the fair value. The company's free cash flow growth and buyback activity support its financial health despite a slight negative spread between ROIC and WACC.
Key Risk
The key risk is the stock's current overvaluation, trading at nearly a 20% premium to its fair value, which may limit upside potential.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.77%5 Year CAGR: 9.12%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,046$1,904$1,626$1,571$1,034$1,322$1,323$819$1,080$813$802$365$601$687$730$864$807$1,151$989$842$458

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Garmin Ltd.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Garmin Ltd.Technology

Garmin Ltd. specializes in the design, development, manufacturing, marketing, and global distribution of diverse wireless products and solutions. Its operations span across North and South America, the Asia Pacific region, the Australian Continent, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company's offerings are organized into several key segments: Fitness: This division caters to athletes and active individuals with products like specialized running and multi-sport watches, cycling computers, activity trackers, smartwatches, and various fitness-related accessories. Additionally, it supports these offerings with its Garmin Connect web and mobile platforms, alongside Connect IQ, an ecosystem for app development. Outdoor: Garmin's Outdoor category features rugged adventure watches, portable GPS devices, golf-specific instruments and accompanying mobile applications, plus specialized dog tracking and training systems. Aviation: The Aviation sector delivers comprehensive avionics solutions for aircraft, encompassing integrated cockpit systems, advanced flight displays and instrumentation, navigation and communication tools, automated flight controls, safety enhancements, audio management, engine monitoring, traffic and weather avoidance systems, ADS-B transponders, data connectivity, portable GPS navigators, wearable aviation devices, and related support services. Marine: For the Marine market, Garmin provides a suite of solutions including chartplotters, multi-function displays, marine cartography, fish finders, sonar technology, autopilots, radar systems, compliant instrumentation and sensors, VHF radios, handheld and wearable marine devices, sailing-specific products, onboard entertainment, digital switching, and electric trolling motors. Auto: The Automotive segment focuses on in-vehicle computing and infotainment systems, personal navigation units, and various camera solutions. Garmin's products are distributed through a diverse network including independent and online retailers, authorized dealers, distributors, service and installation centers, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and directly via its official e-commerce platform, garmin.com. Established in 1989, Garmin Ltd. maintains its corporate headquarters in Schaffhausen, Switzerland.

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq