Market Pulse59Neutral

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #259(GS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$925.87

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$925.87
Price
-$2,444.14
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 364%MOS: -$1,955.31

Fundamental Score

20/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

74/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

62/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is estimated at $-2,444.14 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $925.87, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -73.36% long-term growth rate and a 9.24% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is estimated at $-2,444.14 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $925.87, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -73.36% long-term growth rate and a 9.24% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$2,444.14
-363.98% downside
20% margin of safety: -$1,955.31
Years: 10Growth Rate: -73.36%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.8%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

20/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
364.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-13.7% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.8% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
8
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-86.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

74/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (29th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 99%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 209 (200 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
143 news sentiment+1.7
39 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
10 earnings beat-0.2
3 upgrade headlines+0.1
4 layoffs+0.0
Restructuring+0.0

Trend Details

62/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-4.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+9.2%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-6.0%
Price vs 21 EMA65 · +2.4%
Price vs 50 EMA71 · +4.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA66 · +2.0%
3M RS vs SPY27 · -6.0%
6M RS vs SPY74 · +9.2%
Distance from 52W High92 · -4.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price far exceeding the estimated fair value, and its fundamentals are weak, reflected in poor returns and negative free cash flow growth. Despite a supportive narrative score, the company's return on invested capital is substantially below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating value destruction.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued deterioration of fundamentals and negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which could further depress the stock price.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -73.36%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -88.45%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
-$37,662-$43,090-$11,121-$10,271$12,456$10,965-$12,226$32,311$28,403-$14,557$8,446$8,794-$6,945$5,249$13,840$22,829-$4,930$50,431$3,921-$66,067-$45,873

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.Financial Services

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a financial institution, provides a range of financial services for corporations, financial institutions, governments, and individuals worldwide. It operates through four segments: Investment Banking, Global Markets, Asset Management, and Consumer & Wealth Management. The company's Investment Banking segment provides financial advisory services, including strategic advisory assignments related to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense activities, restructurings, and spin-offs; and middle-market lending, relationship lending, and acquisition financing, as well as transaction banking services. This segment also offers underwriting services, such as equity underwriting for common and preferred stock and convertible and exchangeable securities; and debt underwriting for various types of debt instruments, including investment-grade and high-yield debt, bank and bridge loans, and emerging-and growth-market debt, as well as originates structured securities. Its Global Markets segment is involved in client execution activities for cash and derivative instruments; credit and interest rate products; and provision of equity intermediation and equity financing, clearing, settlement, and custody services, as well as mortgages, currencies, commodities, and equities related products. The company's Asset Management segment manages assets across various classes, including equity, fixed income, hedge funds, credit funds, private equity, real estate, currencies, and commodities; and provides customized investment advisory solutions, as well as invests in corporate, real estate, and infrastructure entities. Its Consumer & Wealth Management segment offers wealth advisory and banking services, including financial planning, investment management, deposit taking, and lending; private banking; and unsecured loans, as well as accepts saving and time deposits. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, New York.