Market Pulse44Neutral

The Home Depot, Inc.Opportunity Rank #153(HD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$326.62

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$326.62
Price
$372.80
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 14%MOS: $298.24

Fundamental Score

53/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

64/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

38/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is estimated at $372.80 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $326.62, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.65% long-term growth rate and an 8.41% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is estimated at $372.80 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $326.62, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.65% long-term growth rate and an 8.41% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$372.80
14.14% upside
20% margin of safety: $298.24
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.65%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.45%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

53/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
14.1% discount to price
74
FCF Yield
6.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.5% vs WACC 11.0% (0.6x)
29
Net Debt / FCF
2.1x net debt to FCF
26
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

64/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (31st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 26m ago
Sources: 159 (138 News · 21 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
118 news sentiment+1.1
Demand slowdown+0.3
3 earnings beat+0.0
13 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
2 macro headwinds+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

38/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-12.9%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-19.3%
Price vs 21 EMA+1.4%
Price vs 21 EMA58 · +1.4%
Price vs 50 EMA53 · +0.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA44 · -0.7%
3M RS vs SPY10 · -12.9%
6M RS vs SPY10 · -19.3%
Distance from 52W High54 · -22.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
The Home Depot, Inc. shows a valuation implying a 17.8% upside with a healthy free cash flow yield of 6.8%, but returns are currently trailing the estimated cost of capital. The company's fundamentals are neutral with a deteriorating narrative trend, warranting a watchful stance.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns below the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.65%5 Year CAGR: 0.42%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$21,749$23,295$24,398$17,734$19,137$21,302$16,401$15,607$13,928$11,404$10,876$9,684$9,017$8,287$7,872$5,681$6,091$7,375$9,285$11,203

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Home Depot, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Home Depot, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a prominent retailer specializing in home renovation and improvement. Through its expansive network of "The Home Depot" stores, it furnishes consumers with an extensive array of goods, including building materials, home enhancement products, lawn and garden supplies, decorative items, and facilities maintenance, repair, and operational (MRO) supplies. In addition to selling products, the company extends professional installation services for key home features like flooring, cabinetry (including makeovers), countertops, furnaces and central air conditioning systems, and window replacements. Customers can also access tool and equipment rental options. Its diverse clientele includes both individual homeowners and a broad spectrum of professional clients, such as renovators, general contractors, maintenance personnel, handymen, property managers, building service contractors, and specialized tradespeople like electricians, plumbers, and painters. The firm also distributes its merchandise through several online platforms, notably homedepot.com, along with specialized sites such as blinds.com for bespoke window coverings and thecompanystore.com for home textiles and decorative goods. By the end of 2021, the corporation operated a total of 2,317 outlets across the United States. Incorporated in 1978, The Home Depot, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq