Market Pulse44Neutral

Honeywell International Inc.Opportunity Rank #275(HON) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$228.11

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$228.11
Price
$115.48
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 49%MOS: $92.38

Fundamental Score

20/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

64/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

52/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Honeywell International Inc. (HON) is estimated at $115.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $228.11, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.20% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.56%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Honeywell International Inc. (HON) is estimated at $115.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $228.11, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.20% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.56%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$115.48
-49.38% downside
20% margin of safety: $92.38
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.20%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.97%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

20/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
49.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
4.3% trailing FCF yield
56
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.0% vs WACC 11.0% (0.3x)
14
Net Debt / FCF
4.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

64/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (34th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 87%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 90 (79 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
71 news sentiment+1.3
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Restructuring-0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

52/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-11.8%
Distance from 52-Week High-8.0%
Price vs 21 EMA+2.0%
Price vs 21 EMA62 · +2.0%
Price vs 50 EMA61 · +2.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA51 · +0.2%
3M RS vs SPY12 · -11.8%
6M RS vs SPY59 · +3.2%
Distance from 52W High84 · -8.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
Honeywell International Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 41%, with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital despite a supportive narrative score. The company’s improving narrative contrasts with deteriorating financial trends, suggesting caution.
Key Risk
Continued underperformance in ROIC relative to WACC could further pressure valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.20%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.22%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$6,151$7,365$6,968$6,081$6,040$6,933$7,114$7,736$7,262$6,997$6,593$6,527$6,118$5,282$4,401$3,631$4,854$4,555$4,675$4,678$3,944

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Honeywell International Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Honeywell International Inc.Industrials

Honeywell International Inc. functions as a global leader in diversified technology and manufacturing. Its Aerospace division furnishes a comprehensive array of products and services for the aviation and space industries. This includes crucial components like auxiliary power units, propulsion systems, integrated avionics, environmental control mechanisms, and electrical power solutions. The segment also supplies engine controls, flight safety systems, communication and navigation hardware, and advanced data and software applications. Additionally, it provides radar, surveillance systems, aircraft lighting, sophisticated instruments, satellite and space components, and aircraft wheels and brakes. Essential support services cover spare parts, repairs, overhauls, maintenance, thermal systems, and wireless connectivity management. The Honeywell Building Technologies unit focuses on creating smarter, safer, and more efficient structures. It develops software for optimizing and controlling building functions, alongside sensors, switches, control systems, and instrumentation for energy management. Offerings extend to access control systems, video surveillance, fire detection products, and the installation, upkeep, and upgrading of these systems. Within its Performance Materials and Technologies division, the company delivers solutions for automation control, instrumentation, and associated software and services. It also provides catalysts, adsorbents, specialized equipment, and consulting expertise. This segment supplies materials essential for manufacturing diverse end products, such as bullet-resistant armor, nylon, computer chips, and pharmaceutical packaging. Furthermore, it produces environmentally friendly materials with reduced and low global-warming potential, utilizing hydrofluoro-olefin technology. The Safety and Productivity Solutions group equips workers and industries with a wide range of products. These comprise personal protective equipment, apparel, gear, and footwear, alongside advanced gas detection technology. It offers cloud-based notification and emergency messaging systems, mobile devices and software, and solutions for supply chain and warehouse automation, including both equipment and software. Custom-engineered sensors, switches, and controls, as well as data and asset management productivity software solutions, also fall under this division. Established in 1906, Honeywell is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Honeywell International Inc. (HON) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq