Market Pulse44Neutral

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Opportunity Rank #210(HOOD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$105.71

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$105.71
Price
$44.62
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 58%MOS: $35.70

Fundamental Score

29/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

72/100
Strong

+2 vs previous

Trend Score

77/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) is estimated at $44.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $105.71, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.26% long-term growth rate and a 10.68% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) is estimated at $44.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $105.71, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.26% long-term growth rate and a 10.68% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$44.62
▼ -57.79% downside
20% margin of safety: $35.70
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.26%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.66%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

29/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
57.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.4% trailing FCF yield
10
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
21
Net Debt / FCF
0.5x net debt to FCF
89
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

72/100
Strong
+2 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (82nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 44m ago
Sources: 226 (200 News · 26 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
162 news sentiment+2.4
3 restructuring-0.5
23 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
Earnings beat-0.1
7 layoffs-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

77/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+34.3%
Price vs 50 EMA+23.1%
Price vs 21 EMA+15.5%
Price vs 21 EMA97 · +15.5%
Price vs 50 EMA98 · +23.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA89 · +6.6%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +34.3%
6M RS vs SPY10 · -19.6%
Distance from 52W High39 · -30.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
Robinhood Markets, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 61.6% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital despite a strong and improving narrative score. The company's financial metrics indicate bearish conditions, suggesting limited upside potential at the current price level.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 14.25%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 398.26%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$2,269$1,692-$107$1,202-$795-$801$1,909$1,273

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Financial Services

Robinhood Markets, Inc. operates a financial services platform available to users throughout the United States. This platform empowers individuals to engage in a wide array of investments, encompassing common stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), options contracts, gold, and various cryptocurrencies. Beyond its core trading functionalities, the company dedicates efforts to providing educational and informational resources. These include "Snacks," a concise daily summary of business news; "Learn," an extensive digital library offering guides, tutorials, and a comprehensive financial dictionary; and "Newsfeeds," which grants complimentary access to premium financial journalism from reputable sources like Barron's, Reuters, and The Wall Street Journal. Additionally, the platform supports users with tools such as customizable watchlists and alert systems for monitoring specific securities, ETFs, and digital assets. It also provides cash management services. For new customers, particularly those who have not yet made their initial investment, Robinhood offers personalized first trade recommendations. Robinhood Markets, Inc. was established in 2013 and maintains its principal operations from Menlo Park, California.