Market Pulse59Neutral

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Opportunity Rank #323(HOOD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$76.28

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$76.28
Price
$43.60
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 43%MOS: $34.88

Fundamental Score

34/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

30/100
Broken

No change vs previous

Trend Score

21/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) is estimated at $43.60 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $76.28, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.32% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) is estimated at $43.60 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $76.28, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.32% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$43.60
▼ -42.84% downside
20% margin of safety: $34.88
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.32%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.69%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

34/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
42.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.3% trailing FCF yield
32
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.5x)
26
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

30/100
Broken
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (9th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 231 (200 News · 31 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
155 news sentiment-1.5
2 earnings miss-0.5
Margin pressure-0.3
36 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
4 upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0

Trend Details

21/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-54.8%
Distance from 52-Week High-49.5%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-13.8%
Price vs 21 EMA41 · -1.4%
Price vs 50 EMA32 · -3.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA32 · -2.3%
3M RS vs SPY9 · -13.8%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -54.8%
Distance from 52W High1 · -49.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 87%
Thesis
Robinhood Markets, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price 56% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and a deteriorating narrative score. The company's returns are below its cost of capital, indicating poor value creation.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's fundamentals and narrative may not improve, leading to further valuation declines.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 13.96%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 397.91%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$2,258$1,653-$144$1,202-$795-$801$1,909$1,273

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Financial Services

Robinhood Markets, Inc. operates financial services platform in the United States. Its platform allows users to invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), options, gold, and cryptocurrencies. The company also offers various learning and education solutions comprise Snacks, a digest of business news stories; Learn, which is a collection of approximately articles, including guides, feature tutorials, and financial dictionary; Newsfeeds that offer access to free premium news from various sites, such as Barron's, Reuters, and The Wall Street Journal; lists and alerts, which allow users to create custom watchlists and alerts to monitor securities, ETFs, and cryptocurrencies, as well as cash management services; and offers First trade recommendations to all new customers who have yet to place a trade. Robinhood Markets, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.