Market Pulse44Neutral

Hewlett Packard Enterprise CompanyOpportunity Rank #176(HPE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$48.42

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$48.42
Price
$39.77
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 18%MOS: $31.82

Fundamental Score

39/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

94/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) is estimated at $39.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $48.42, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -4.08% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.96%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) is estimated at $39.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $48.42, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -4.08% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.96%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$39.77
-17.87% downside
20% margin of safety: $31.82
Years: 10Growth Rate: -4.08%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.74%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

39/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
17.9% premium to price
20
FCF Yield
11.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 0.7% vs WACC 10.0% (0.1x)
4
Net Debt / FCF
2.3x net debt to FCF
22
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
8.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
69
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (80th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 170 (150 News · 20 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
114 news sentiment+4.3
26 regulatory scrutiny+1.3
7 earnings beat+0.3
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
Guidance raise+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

94/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+108.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+90.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+17.2%
Price vs 21 EMA84 · +6.9%
Price vs 50 EMA99 · +25.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA100 · +17.2%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +108.4%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +90.6%
Distance from 52W High72 · -13.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 63%
Thesis
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company shares appear fully priced with a fair value below the current price, and fundamentals are weak with returns trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite a strong and stable narrative score, the company's financial performance does not support an investment at this time.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -4.08%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.74%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$7,076$5,211$6,708$7,256$7,715$8,373$4,623$6,853$5,920$4,026$8,238$7,005$10,531$11,236$10,715

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise CompanyTechnology

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is a global technology firm that provides comprehensive solutions, empowering clients across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, and Japan to efficiently capture, analyze, and utilize their data. The company's diverse product range features adaptable servers for various computing demands, including general-purpose, workload-optimized, and specific lines like HPE ProLiant rack and tower servers, HPE BladeSystem, and HPE Synergy. HPE also offers a full suite of storage solutions, from traditional tape and storage networking to advanced disk products such as HPE Modular Storage Arrays and HPE XP. Additionally, its portfolio includes specialized high-performance computing (HPC) offerings like HPE Apollo and Cray, alongside critical infrastructure platforms such as HPE Superdome Flex, HPE Nonstop, HPE Integrity, and HPE Edgeline. Through its HPE Aruba division, HPE delivers extensive networking capabilities, encompassing wired and wireless local area network (LAN) hardware—including Wi-Fi access points, switches, routers, and sensors—and a range of software and services for cloud management, network access control, analytics, and location services. HPE further provides professional and support services, along with flexible as-a-service and consumption models for its intelligent edge products. To streamline technology acquisition and deployment, HPE offers various financial services, including leasing, financing, IT consumption programs, and asset management. These services enable customers to procure complete IT solutions, spanning hardware, software, and services, from both HPE and other providers. The company strategically invests in communications and media solutions and has a key partnership with Striim, Inc., to deliver high-performance, mission-critical solutions with real-time analytics. HPE serves a broad clientele, including commercial and large enterprise groups in both the business and public sectors, reaching them through an extensive network of partners such as resellers, distributors, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), independent software vendors (ISVs), system integrators (SIs), and advisory firms. Established in 1939, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.