Market Pulse44Neutral

Howmet Aerospace Inc.Opportunity Rank #206(HWM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$280.36

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$280.36
Price
$66.74
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 76%MOS: $53.39

Fundamental Score

46/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

66/100
Improving

+3 vs previous

Trend Score

83/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is estimated at $66.74 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $280.36, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -1.78% long-term growth rate and a 9.36% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is estimated at $66.74 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $280.36, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -1.78% long-term growth rate and a 9.36% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$66.74
▼ -76.19% downside
20% margin of safety: $53.39
Years: 10Growth Rate: -1.78%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.05%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

46/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
76.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.4% trailing FCF yield
11
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.1% vs WACC 9.0% (0.7x)
34
Net Debt / FCF
0.8x net debt to FCF
84
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
58.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

66/100
Improving
+3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (69th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 93%Updated: 45m ago
Sources: 54 (47 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
34 news sentiment+1.1
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
Upgrade headlines+0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
Earnings miss-0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

83/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+35.8%
Distance from 52-Week High-1.0%
Price vs 50 EMA+9.0%
Price vs 21 EMA81 · +6.0%
Price vs 50 EMA85 · +9.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA72 · +2.9%
3M RS vs SPY75 · +6.5%
6M RS vs SPY98 · +35.8%
Distance from 52W High98 · -1.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 70%
Thesis
Howmet Aerospace Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 80% above the estimated fair value, and its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite some positive free cash flow growth and buybacks, the overall fundamentals remain bearish with a negative spread between ROIC and WACC.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend or score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -1.78%5 Year CAGR: 33.36%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
$2,733$2,337$1,619$1,120$926$648$276$992$985$1,297$1,998$2,762$2,893

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Howmet Aerospace Inc.Industrials

Howmet Aerospace Inc., headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and originally established in 1888 as Arconic Inc., is a global leader in providing sophisticated engineered solutions. The company caters to the aerospace and transportation sectors across a wide international footprint, including key markets such as the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, and China. Its business operations are structured into four main segments: Engine Products: This division manufactures critical components like airfoils and seamless rolled rings, primarily utilized in aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines, alongside various rotating and structural parts. Fastening Systems: This segment specializes in producing aerospace-grade fastening systems, as well as fasteners for commercial transportation, general industrial applications, and other uses. Engineered Structures: Responsible for supplying titanium ingots and mill products for aerospace and defense applications, this segment also provides aluminum and nickel forgings, and precision machined components and assemblies. Forged Wheels: This segment focuses on offering forged aluminum wheels and associated products specifically for the heavy-duty truck and commercial transportation markets.