Market Pulse59Neutral

Howmet Aerospace Inc.Opportunity Rank #199(HWM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$272.54

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$272.54
Price
$74.44
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 73%MOS: $59.55

Fundamental Score

53/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

70/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

86/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is estimated at $74.44 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $272.54, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -1.78% long-term growth rate and a 9.73% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is estimated at $74.44 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $272.54, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -1.78% long-term growth rate and a 9.73% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$74.44
▼ -72.69% downside
20% margin of safety: $59.55
Years: 10Growth Rate: -1.78%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
9.09%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

53/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
72.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.5% trailing FCF yield
13
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 9.1% vs WACC 9.0% (1.0x)
51
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
58.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

70/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (82nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 99%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 97 (87 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
55 news sentiment+1.1
28 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
2 earnings beat+0.6
Earnings miss-0.5
Upgrade headlines+0.0
10 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

86/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-0.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+22.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+14.4%
Price vs 21 EMA89 · +8.6%
Price vs 50 EMA89 · +10.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA67 · +2.2%
3M RS vs SPY92 · +14.4%
6M RS vs SPY92 · +22.3%
Distance from 52W High99 · -0.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 50%
Thesis
Howmet Aerospace Inc. shows a strong narrative score and a near net cash balance sheet, but its current price is significantly overvalued compared to the estimated fair value. Despite solid fundamentals like positive ROIC vs WACC spread and strong free cash flow growth, the valuation suggests limited upside.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the substantial overvaluation, with the current price nearly 78.5% above the estimated fair value, which could lead to significant downside.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor for the stock price to decline to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track the ROIC versus WACC spread for signs of sustained improvement.
  • Observe the narrative score trend for any meaningful shifts in direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -1.78%5 Year CAGR: 33.36%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
$2,733$2,337$1,619$1,120$926$648$276$992$985$1,297$1,998$2,762$2,893

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Howmet Aerospace Inc.Industrials

Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. The Engine Products segment offers airfoils and seamless rolled rings primarily for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines; and rotating parts, as well as structural parts. The Fastening Systems segment produces aerospace fastening systems, as well as commercial transportation, industrial, and other fasteners. The Engineered Structures segment provides titanium ingots and mill products for aerospace and defense applications; and aluminum and nickel forgings, and machined components and assemblies. The Forged Wheels segment offers forged aluminum wheels and related products for heavy-duty trucks and commercial transportation markets. The company was formerly known as Arconic Inc. The company was founded in 1888 and is based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.