Market Pulse59Neutral

Ichor Holdings, Ltd.Opportunity Rank #222(ICHR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$71.23

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$71.23
Price
$12.69
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 82%MOS: $10.15

Fundamental Score

13/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

99/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (ICHR) is estimated at $12.69 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $71.23, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.71% long-term growth rate and an 11.84% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (ICHR) is estimated at $12.69 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $71.23, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.71% long-term growth rate and an 11.84% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$12.69
▼ -82.18% downside
20% margin of safety: $10.15
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.71%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-4.34%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

13/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
82.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.3% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -4.3% vs WACC 8.0% (-0.5x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-4.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (74th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 75%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 28 (19 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
10 news sentiment+0.7
Restructuring+0.2
2 upgrade headlines+0.2
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
Legal risk-0.0

Trend Details

99/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+124.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+336.8%
Distance from 52-Week High0.0%
Price vs 21 EMA96 · +13.7%
Price vs 50 EMA100 · +30.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA99 · +15.1%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +124.7%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +336.8%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Ichor Holdings, Ltd. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 81.6% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals including a negative ROIC spread and thin free cash flow yield. Despite a strong narrative score, the company's financial performance and returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor investment prospects.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's fundamentals may deteriorate further, exacerbating its already negative returns relative to its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend or score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.71%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.98%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
$33$66$46$73$61$36$49$69$74$47$32$28$12$14

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ichor Holdings, Ltd.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ichor Holdings, Ltd.Technology

Ichor Holdings, Ltd. engages in the design, engineering, and manufacture of fluid delivery subsystems and components for semiconductor capital equipment. It primarily offers gas and chemical delivery systems and subsystems that are used in the manufacturing of semiconductor devices. The company's gas delivery subsystems deliver, monitor, and control gases used in semiconductor manufacturing processes, such as etch and deposition; and chemical delivery subsystems blend and dispense the reactive liquid chemistries used in semiconductor manufacturing processes comprising chemical-mechanical planarization, electroplating, and cleaning. It also manufactures precision machined components, weldments, electron beam, laser-welded components, precision vacuum and hydrogen brazing, surface treatment technologies, and other proprietary products for use in fluid delivery systems. The company primarily markets its products directly and through resellers to equipment OEMs in the semiconductor equipment market in the United States, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Malaysia, Korea, Mexico, and internationally. Ichor Holdings, Ltd. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.