Market Pulse45Neutral

Ingles Markets, IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #90(IMKTA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$89.75

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$89.75
Price
$245.52
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 174%MOS: $196.42

Fundamental Score

52/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

56/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Ingles Markets, Incorporated (IMKTA) is estimated at $245.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $89.75, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.61% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.85%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Ingles Markets, Incorporated (IMKTA) is estimated at $245.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $89.75, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.61% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.85%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$245.52
173.56% upside
20% margin of safety: $196.42
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.61%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.67%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

52/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
173.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
21.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.7% vs WACC 8.0% (0.2x)
10
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
95
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (14th pct)Weighted across 2 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 40%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 5 (5 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
4 news sentiment+0.0

Trend Details

56/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-5.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+13.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-7.4%
Price vs 21 EMA53 · +0.5%
Price vs 50 EMA57 · +1.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA57 · +0.8%
3M RS vs SPY23 · -7.4%
6M RS vs SPY81 · +13.1%
Distance from 52W High88 · -5.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Ingles Markets, Incorporated is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 173.8% above its current price and a healthy free cash flow yield of 20.6%. However, returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating sufficient economic profit.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may limit value creation and pressure the stock's valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.61%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.18%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$362$269$473$440$459$447$473$373$312$284$297$258$263$247$314$195$217$244$338$267$194

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ingles Markets, Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ingles Markets, IncorporatedConsumer Defensive

Ingles Markets, Incorporated functions as a major supermarket chain predominantly located throughout the southeastern United States. The company provides a comprehensive selection of food products, ranging from fresh produce, meats, and dairy to frozen goods, general groceries, and other perishable items. Beyond the food aisle, Ingles also offers various non-food essentials, such as health and beauty care products, general merchandise, and its own proprietary private label brands. Many of its locations also feature convenient fuel centers and pharmacies. A unique aspect of Ingles Markets is its ownership and operation of a milk processing and packaging plant. This facility produces organic milk, fruit juices, and bottled water, supplying these items not only to its own stores but also to other retail outlets, food service distributors, and wholesale grocery warehouses. Within its stores, customers can also find prepared home meal replacements, full-service delicatessens, in-store bakeries, floral departments, and greeting card selections. The company further emphasizes a wide array of local organic, beverage, and health-conscious product options. As of September 25, 2021, Ingles Markets managed a network of 198 supermarkets, comprising 189 stores under the Ingles brand and 9 under the Sav-Mor name. These stores are situated across western North Carolina, western South Carolina, northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia, and northeastern Alabama. Additionally, the company operated 111 pharmacies and 107 fuel stations. Ingles Markets, Incorporated was established in 1963 and is headquartered in Asheville, North Carolina.