Market Pulse59Neutral

Intuitive Surgical, Inc.Opportunity Rank #263(ISRG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$453.49

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$453.49
Price
$179.40
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 60%MOS: $143.52

Fundamental Score

49/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

77/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

25/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) is estimated at $179.40 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $453.49, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.32% long-term growth rate and a 10.61% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) is estimated at $179.40 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $453.49, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.32% long-term growth rate and a 10.61% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$179.40
▼ -60.44% downside
20% margin of safety: $143.52
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.32%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.45%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

49/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
60.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.4% trailing FCF yield
11
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.5% vs WACC 7.0% (0.8x)
39
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
16.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

77/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (58th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 144 (131 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
86 news sentiment+1.9
40 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
2 earnings beat+0.2
3 upgrade headlines+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

25/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-26.8%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-14.6%
Price vs 50 EMA-4.6%
Price vs 21 EMA36 · -2.2%
Price vs 50 EMA28 · -4.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA31 · -2.4%
3M RS vs SPY8 · -14.6%
6M RS vs SPY5 · -26.8%
Distance from 52W High52 · -24.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 59%
Thesis
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price approximately 59% above the estimated fair value, and its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite a supportive narrative score and a strong balance sheet, the fundamentals indicate a bearish outlook with a negative ROIC minus WACC spread.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns may not improve sufficiently to justify the current high valuation, leading to potential further price declines.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.32%5 Year CAGR: 9.74%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,887$3,570$3,526$2,878$2,023$2,443$1,826$2,024$1,357$1,335$1,097$853$771$985$956$761$624$438$384$230$118

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Intuitive Surgical, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Intuitive Surgical, Inc.Healthcare

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets products that enable physicians and healthcare providers to enhance the quality of and access to minimally invasive care in the United States and internationally. The company offers the da Vinci Surgical System to enable complex surgery using a minimally invasive approach; and Ion endoluminal system, which extends its commercial offerings beyond surgery into diagnostic procedures enabling minimally invasive biopsies in the lung. It also provides a suite of stapling, energy, and core instrumentation for its surgical systems; progressive learning pathways to support the use of its technology; a complement of services to its customers, including support, installation, repair, and maintenance; and integrated digital capabilities providing unified and connected offerings, streamlining performance for hospitals with program-enhancing insights. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.