Market Pulse53Neutral

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.Opportunity Rank #78(JBSS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$80.36

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$80.36
Price
$270.31
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 236%MOS: $216.25

Fundamental Score

73/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

50/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) is estimated at $270.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $80.36, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.91% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.47%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) is estimated at $270.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $80.36, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.91% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.47%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$270.31
236.37% upside
20% margin of safety: $216.25
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.91%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.95%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

73/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
236.4% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
22.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.0% vs WACC 8.0% (0.5x)
25
Net Debt / FCF
0.4x net debt to FCF
93
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
22.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (21st pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 41%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 6 (6 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
4 news sentiment+0.0
Margin pressure+0.0
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0

Trend Details

50/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-10.4%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-4.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+1.4%
Price vs 21 EMA39 · -1.8%
Price vs 50 EMA48 · -0.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA62 · +1.4%
3M RS vs SPY32 · -4.6%
6M RS vs SPY55 · +1.8%
Distance from 52W High79 · -10.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 264% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 23.8%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company demonstrates robust free cash flow growth and a bullish fundamental score of 73.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital which may pressure valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.91%5 Year CAGR: 10.49%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$214$81$130$145$37$130$79$99$79$64$104$28$22$43$23$12$51$49$41$59$51

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.Consumer Defensive

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc., operating across the United States through its subsidiary JBSS Ventures, LLC, specializes in the processing and distribution of both tree nuts and peanuts. The company's core offerings include a wide selection of raw and prepared nuts, featuring popular varieties like almonds, pecans, peanuts, black walnuts, English walnuts, cashews, macadamia nuts, pistachios, pine nuts, Brazil nuts, and filberts, all available in various styles and flavor profiles. Beyond its extensive nut collection, the product line encompasses a broad spectrum of other items. These range from an array of peanut butters in different sizes and formulations to diverse snack foods, such as trail mixes, salad toppings, snack bites, dried fruits, and chocolate or yogurt-coated treats. The company also supplies baking ingredients, bulk food items, sunflower kernels, pepitas, almond and cashew butters, various candies, corn snacks, chickpea snacks, and a selection of sesame-based snacks, including sesame sticks. Furthermore, it provides numerous toppings suitable for ice cream and yogurt. In addition to its widespread distribution channels, the enterprise also operates its own retail establishment. Its diverse product portfolio is marketed under proprietary brands like Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand, and Southern Style Nuts, alongside a significant array of private label offerings. The company caters to a broad customer base, including retailers, wholesalers, and those requiring commercial ingredients or contract packaging services, with its reach facilitated by a robust network of independent brokers, distributors, and suppliers. Dating back to its establishment in 1922, John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. maintains its headquarters in Elgin, Illinois.