Market Pulse44Neutral

The Coca-Cola CompanyOpportunity Rank #246(KO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$79.53

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$79.53
Price
$54.77
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 31%MOS: $43.82

Fundamental Score

38/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

50/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is estimated at $54.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $79.53, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.12% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.28%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is estimated at $54.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $79.53, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.12% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.28%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$54.77
-31.13% downside
20% margin of safety: $43.82
Years: 10Growth Rate: 1.12%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.88%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

38/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
31.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
4.9% trailing FCF yield
72
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.9% vs WACC 10.0% (0.6x)
29
Net Debt / FCF
2.0x net debt to FCF
31
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
8.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
68
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (56th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 37m ago
Sources: 210 (200 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
172 news sentiment+2.2
24 regulatory scrutiny+1.0
2 macro headwinds+0.1
Margin pressure+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
10 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

50/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-4.9%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-8.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+1.2%
Price vs 21 EMA45 · -0.8%
Price vs 50 EMA52 · +0.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA60 · +1.2%
3M RS vs SPY20 · -8.4%
6M RS vs SPY55 · +1.7%
Distance from 52W High90 · -4.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
The Coca-Cola Company is currently overvalued by approximately 33% with weak fundamentals indicated by a bearish score of 37 and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a supportive narrative score of 80, the company's ROIC is below its WACC, signaling operational inefficiencies.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may continue to erode shareholder value if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 1.12%5 Year CAGR: 3.60%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$16,700$9,520$8,869$13,451$12,502$13,992$11,021$12,525$9,175$8,781$11,058$13,081$13,021$13,092$13,425$12,394$11,747$10,179$9,539$8,798$7,364

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Coca-Cola Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Coca-Cola CompanyConsumer Defensive

The Coca-Cola Company, a prominent global entity in the beverage sector, is dedicated to the creation, marketing, and worldwide sale of a broad spectrum of non-alcoholic refreshments. Its extensive product range encompasses effervescent soft drinks, including various flavored options; still and sparkling waters; sports beverages, coffees, and teas; diverse fruit juices; fortified dairy drinks; and plant-based alternatives, among other liquid offerings. In addition to finished products, the company provides beverage concentrates and syrups, specifically supplying fountain syrups to food service establishments like restaurants and convenience stores. These products are offered under an expansive portfolio of globally recognized brands, such as Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, Fanta, Sprite, Simply, Fresca, Powerade, Dasani, and Minute Maid, to name just a few. The organization leverages a sophisticated distribution network, involving independent bottling partners, a variety of distributors, wholesalers, and retailers, complemented by its own bottling and distribution operations. Established in 1886, the enterprise's central operations are based in Atlanta, Georgia.

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq