Market Pulse59Neutral

The Coca-Cola CompanyOpportunity Rank #257(KO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$78.43

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$78.43
Price
$54.77
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 30%MOS: $43.82

Fundamental Score

38/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

55/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is estimated at $54.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $78.43, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.12% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.28%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is estimated at $54.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $78.43, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.12% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.28%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$54.77
-30.17% downside
20% margin of safety: $43.82
Years: 10Growth Rate: 1.12%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.68%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

38/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
30.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
4.9% trailing FCF yield
74
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.7% vs WACC 10.0% (0.6x)
28
Net Debt / FCF
2.0x net debt to FCF
31
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
8.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
68
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (58th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 216 (200 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
150 news sentiment+4.8
7 earnings beat+1.1
42 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
Downgrade headlines+0.0
16 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

55/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-3.8%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-7.6%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+5.6%
Price vs 21 EMA57 · +1.2%
Price vs 50 EMA60 · +2.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA57 · +0.9%
3M RS vs SPY22 · -7.6%
6M RS vs SPY65 · +5.6%
Distance from 52W High92 · -3.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
The Coca-Cola Company is currently overvalued by approximately 28.5% relative to its estimated fair value of $56.11, with weak fundamentals reflected in a bearish score of 38 and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a supportive narrative score of 80, the company’s ROIC is below its WACC, indicating potential value erosion.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained underperformance of returns relative to the cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and shareholder returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained periods.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction indicating changes in market sentiment.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 1.12%5 Year CAGR: 3.60%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$16,700$9,520$8,869$13,451$12,502$13,992$11,021$12,525$9,175$8,781$11,058$13,081$13,021$13,092$13,425$12,394$11,747$10,179$9,539$8,798$7,364

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Coca-Cola Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Coca-Cola CompanyConsumer Defensive

The Coca-Cola Company, a beverage company, manufactures, markets, and sells various nonalcoholic beverages worldwide. The company provides sparkling soft drinks, sparkling flavors; water, sports, coffee, and tea; juice, value-added dairy, and plant-based beverages; and other beverages. It also offers beverage concentrates and syrups, as well as fountain syrups to fountain retailers, such as restaurants and convenience stores. The company sells its products under the Coca-Cola, Diet Coke/Coca-Cola Light, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, caffeine free Diet Coke, Cherry Coke, Fanta Orange, Fanta Zero Orange, Fanta Zero Sugar, Fanta Apple, Sprite, Sprite Zero Sugar, Simply Orange, Simply Apple, Simply Grapefruit, Fresca, Schweppes, Thums Up, Aquarius, Ayataka, BODYARMOR, Ciel, Costa, Dasani, dogadan, FUZE TEA, Georgia, glacéau smartwater, glacéau vitaminwater, Gold Peak, Ice Dew, I LOHAS, Powerade, Topo Chico, AdeS, Del Valle, fairlife, innocent, Minute Maid, and Minute Maid Pulpy brands. It operates through a network of independent bottling partners, distributors, wholesalers, and retailers, as well as through bottling and distribution operators. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.