Market Pulse44Neutral

Lucid Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #326(LCID) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$5.16

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$5.16
Price
-$8.88
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 272%MOS: -$7.10

Fundamental Score

13/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

33/100
Broken

No change vs previous

Trend Score

18/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) is estimated at $-8.88 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.16, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -74.68% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.90%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) is estimated at $-8.88 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.16, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -74.68% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.90%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$8.88
▼ -272.09% downside
20% margin of safety: -$7.10
Years: 10Growth Rate: -74.68%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-47.11%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

13/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
272.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-168.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -47.1% vs WACC 11.0% (-4.3x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-79.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

33/100
Broken
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (5th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 15m ago
Sources: 199 (193 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
5 regulatory scrutiny-2.2
128 legal risk+1.6
56 news sentiment-0.5
2 restructuring-0.5
Layoffs-0.1
Product recall-0.0

Trend Details

18/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-63.5%
Distance from 52-Week High-83.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-64.5%
Price vs 21 EMA16 · -6.5%
Price vs 50 EMA1 · -19.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA1 · -13.9%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -63.5%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -64.5%
Distance from 52W High0 · -83.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Lucid Group, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 280% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are substantially trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health and operational inefficiency.
Key Risk
Continued negative spread between ROIC and WACC and deteriorating free cash flow could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -74.68%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -78.39%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$2,756-$2,092-$1,136-$1,579-$1,151-$637-$111-$131

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lucid Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lucid Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Operating at the intersection of technology and the automotive industry, Lucid Group, Inc. specializes in the development of electric vehicle (EV) technologies. The company is responsible for the complete cycle of designing, engineering, and manufacturing electric vehicles, including their vital powertrain and battery systems. By the end of 2021, Lucid had expanded its physical presence to twenty retail studios across the United States. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Newark, California.