Market Pulse44Neutral

Eli Lilly and CompanyOpportunity Rank #199(LLY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$1,103.68

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,103.68
Price
$596.26
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 46%MOS: $477.01

Fundamental Score

47/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

68/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is estimated at $596.26 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,103.68, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.78% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.51%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is estimated at $596.26 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,103.68, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.78% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.51%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$596.26
-45.98% downside
20% margin of safety: $477.01
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.78%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
10.67%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

47/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
46.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.6% trailing FCF yield
16
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.7% vs WACC 11.0% (1.0x)
49
Net Debt / FCF
1.4x net debt to FCF
48
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
26.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Buybacks, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (59th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 99%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 210 (200 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
173 news sentiment+3.7
8 legal risk+0.3
15 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
3 earnings beat+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
10 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

68/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-4.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+4.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+7.0%
Price vs 21 EMA54 · +0.7%
Price vs 50 EMA74 · +5.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA82 · +4.7%
3M RS vs SPY76 · +7.0%
6M RS vs SPY37 · -4.9%
Distance from 52W High90 · -4.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Eli Lilly and Company is currently overvalued with its market price approximately 48.6% above the estimated fair value, despite a supportive narrative score. The fundamentals show a bearish outlook with a negative ROIC minus WACC spread and moderate free cash flow yield.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.78%5 Year CAGR: 23.99%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$27,381$24,654$17,222$11,632$10,571$9,344$8,529$6,190$8,543$7,779$5,943$4,591$6,024$6,828$6,349$8,927$8,044$5,191$8,243$6,237$5,054

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Eli Lilly and Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Eli Lilly and CompanyHealthcare

Eli Lilly and Company is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research, development, and commercialization of human medicines across the world. Its therapeutic offerings include a comprehensive suite of diabetes medications. This encompasses various insulin formulations like Basaglar, the Humalog family (e.g., Mix 75/25, U-100, U-200, Mix 50/50), insulin lispro products (including protamine and mix 75/25), and the Humulin line (e.g., 70/30, N, R, U-500). Furthermore, Eli Lilly provides specialized treatments for type 2 diabetes, such as Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity. In oncology, Eli Lilly offers a robust portfolio targeting various cancers. These include Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza, indicated for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo, used in metastatic NSCLC, medullary thyroid, and other thyroid cancers; Tyvyt for relapsed or refractory classic Hodgkin's lymphoma and non-squamous NSCLC; and Verzenio, prescribed for HR+, HER2- metastatic breast cancer, node-positive, and early breast cancer. For autoimmune and inflammatory conditions, the company markets Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis, and Taltz, which addresses plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis. Addressing neurological and pain management needs, Eli Lilly provides Cymbalta for depressive disorder, diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain, generalized anxiety disorder, fibromyalgia, and chronic musculoskeletal pain. Emgality is available for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headaches, while Zyprexa treats schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder, and aids in bipolar maintenance. Other significant products include Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, along with Bebtelovimab, both developed for COVID-19. Cialis is offered for erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia, and Forteo is available for osteoporosis. Eli Lilly actively engages in strategic collaborations with numerous partners, including Incyte Corporation; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; AbCellera Biologics Inc.; Junshi Biosciences; Regor Therapeutics Group; Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.; Kumquat Biosciences Inc.; Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.; and Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. Established in 1876, Eli Lilly and Company maintains its corporate headquarters in Indianapolis, Indiana.