Market Pulse59Neutral

Lemonade, Inc.Opportunity Rank #313(LMND) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$54.43

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$54.43
Price
$18.05
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 67%MOS: $14.44

Fundamental Score

33/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

10/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) is estimated at $18.05 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $54.43, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.39% long-term growth rate and an 11.20% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) is estimated at $18.05 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $54.43, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.39% long-term growth rate and an 11.20% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$18.05
▼ -66.84% downside
20% margin of safety: $14.44
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.39%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-32.37%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

33/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
66.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -32.4% vs WACC 11.0% (-2.9x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
164.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (6th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 44 (39 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 regulatory scrutiny-0.2
32 news sentiment+0.2
3 upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

10/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-32.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-39.0%
Price vs 50 EMA-11.0%
Price vs 21 EMA12 · -7.5%
Price vs 50 EMA9 · -11.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA22 · -3.8%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -32.7%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -39.0%
Distance from 52W High14 · -43.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Lemonade, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 66% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and a negative return on invested capital relative to its cost of capital. The company exhibits a bearish fundamental score and a deteriorating narrative trend, indicating ongoing operational challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may continue to erode shareholder value if not reversed.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 92.88%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 181.54%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$41-$7-$2-$110-$153-$135-$87-$75-$40-$19

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lemonade, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lemonade, Inc.Financial Services

Lemonade, Inc. provides various insurance products in the United States and Europe. Its insurance products include stolen or damaged property, and personal liability that protects its customers if they are responsible for an accident or damage to another person or their property. The company also offers renters, homeowners, pet, car, and life insurance products, as well as landlord insurance policies. In addition, it operates as an agent for other insurance companies. The company was formerly known as Lemonade Group, Inc. and changed its name to Lemonade, Inc. Lemonade, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in New York, New York.