Market Pulse45Neutral

Lockheed Martin CorporationOpportunity Rank #151(LMT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$493.60

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$493.60
Price
$608.49
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 23%MOS: $486.79

Fundamental Score

50/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

71/100
Strong

+2 vs previous

Trend Score

21/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) is estimated at $608.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $493.60, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.59% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.38%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) is estimated at $608.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $493.60, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.59% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.38%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$608.49
23.28% upside
20% margin of safety: $486.79
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.59%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.69%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

50/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
23.3% discount to price
89
FCF Yield
8.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.5x)
26
Net Debt / FCF
2.1x net debt to FCF
28
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-0.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

71/100
Strong
+2 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (39th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 99%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 131 (125 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
106 news sentiment+1.3
12 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
2 earnings miss-0.0
3 legal risk+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Margin pressure-0.0

Trend Details

21/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-36.1%
Price vs 50 EMA-8.6%
Price vs 21 EMA-6.0%
Price vs 21 EMA18 · -6.0%
Price vs 50 EMA14 · -8.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA28 · -2.7%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -36.1%
6M RS vs SPY32 · -6.9%
Distance from 52W High46 · -27.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Lockheed Martin Corporation shows a valuation implying a 17.7% upside with a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.5%, but returns are currently trailing the estimated cost of capital. The company’s fundamentals are bearish with a deteriorating narrative trend, suggesting caution.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating potential value destruction if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.59%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.74%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,074$10,206$8,657$9,611$9,472$10,743$9,949$8,795$4,416$7,653$6,252$6,040$4,711$5,382$2,503$5,240$4,367$4,025$5,347$5,181$4,676

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lockheed Martin Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lockheed Martin CorporationIndustrials

Lockheed Martin Corporation stands as a prominent global security and aerospace enterprise, specializing in the comprehensive lifecycle of advanced technological systems. Its expertise spans the research, design, development, manufacturing, integration, and ongoing sustainment of cutting-edge products and services across the world. The company's diverse operations are structured into four key segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space. The Aeronautics division is responsible for creating and producing leading-edge combat and air mobility aircraft, alongside unmanned aerial vehicles and their related innovations. The Missiles and Fire Control segment delivers sophisticated air and missile defense systems; tactical and precision air-to-ground weapon systems; comprehensive logistics; advanced fire control; mission operations, readiness, engineering support, and integration services; both crewed and uncrewed ground vehicles; and energy management solutions. Within the Rotary and Mission Systems segment, the portfolio includes military and commercial helicopters, naval surface ships, land and sea-based missile defense systems, advanced radar technologies, maritime and airborne mission and combat systems, intricate command and control solutions, cybersecurity services, and simulation and training platforms. The Space division focuses on satellites, space transportation systems, strategic, advanced strike, and defensive missile systems, as well as classified systems and services vital for national security. This segment further enhances situational awareness through network enablement, integrating space and ground-based systems to empower customers in gathering, analyzing, and securely distributing crucial intelligence data. Lockheed Martin primarily serves the United States government, alongside fulfilling foreign military sales facilitated through U.S. government contracts. Established in 1912, the corporation maintains its headquarters in Bethesda, Maryland.