Market Pulse59Neutral

Lockheed Martin CorporationOpportunity Rank #143(LMT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$512.41

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$512.41
Price
$608.49
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 19%MOS: $486.79

Fundamental Score

49/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

64/100
Improving

+2 vs previous

Trend Score

19/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) is estimated at $608.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $512.41, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.59% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.39%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) is estimated at $608.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $512.41, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.59% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.39%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$608.49
18.75% upside
20% margin of safety: $486.79
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.59%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.71%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

49/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
18.8% discount to price
81
FCF Yield
7.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.5x)
26
Net Debt / FCF
2.1x net debt to FCF
28
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-0.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

64/100
Improving
+2 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (12th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 99%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 205 (199 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
148 news sentiment+1.7
4 earnings miss-0.7
3 earnings beat+0.3
36 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Margin pressure-0.1
4 upgrade headlines+0.1

Trend Details

19/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-25.6%
Price vs 50 EMA-11.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-5.4%
Price vs 21 EMA15 · -6.7%
Price vs 50 EMA8 · -11.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA14 · -5.4%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -25.6%
6M RS vs SPY45 · -1.8%
Distance from 52W High50 · -25.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Lockheed Martin Corporation's stock is currently trading at a 20.5% discount to its estimated fair value, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.7%. However, returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in value creation.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained profitability and valuation improvement.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.59%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.74%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,074$10,206$8,657$9,611$9,472$10,743$9,949$8,795$4,416$7,653$6,252$6,040$4,711$5,382$2,503$5,240$4,367$4,025$5,347$5,181$4,676

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lockheed Martin Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lockheed Martin CorporationIndustrials

Lockheed Martin Corporation, a security and aerospace company, engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems, products, and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space. The Aeronautics segment offers combat and air mobility aircraft, unmanned air vehicles, and related technologies. The Missiles and Fire Control segment provides air and missile defense systems; tactical missiles and air-to-ground precision strike weapon systems; logistics; fire control systems; mission operations support, readiness, engineering support, and integration services; manned and unmanned ground vehicles; and energy management solutions. The Rotary and Mission Systems segment offers military and commercial helicopters, surface ships, sea and land-based missile defense systems, radar systems, sea and air-based mission and combat systems, command and control mission solutions, cyber solutions, and simulation and training solutions. The Space segment offers satellites; space transportation systems; strategic, advanced strike, and defensive missile systems; and classified systems and services in support of national security systems. This segment also provides network-enabled situational awareness and integrates space and ground-based systems to help its customers gather, analyze, and securely distribute critical intelligence data. It serves primarily serves the U.S. government, as well as foreign military sales contracted through the U.S. government. Lockheed Martin Corporation was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.