Market Pulse53Neutral

LiveWire Group, Inc.(LVWR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$0.77

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$0.77
Price
-$6.31
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 919%MOS: -$5.05

Fundamental Score

33/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

0/100
Unavailable

Trend data unavailable

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The intrinsic value of LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR) is estimated at $-6.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $0.77, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.38% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.26%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR) is estimated at $-6.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $0.77, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.38% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.26%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$6.31
▼ -919.48% downside
20% margin of safety: -$5.05
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.38%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-37.69%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

33/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
919.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-28.1% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -37.7% vs WACC 10.0% (-3.8x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
48.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:High (96th pct)Weighted across 2 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 40%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 3 (3 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
News sentiment+0.0

Trend Details

0/100
NeutralRules-based daily model
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 44d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
LiveWire Group, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 140% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. Despite a stable and improving narrative, the company’s returns trail its cost of capital, indicating poor capital efficiency.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which could further deteriorate shareholder value if not reversed.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 39.87%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 84.37%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$44-$50-$86-$70-$76-$65-$50-$62

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates LiveWire Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

LiveWire Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

LiveWire Group, Inc. specializes in the production of electric motorcycles, catering to markets across North America, Europe/Middle East/Africa, and Asia Pacific. The company markets its zero-emission two-wheelers under the LiveWire brand name. Furthermore, it maintains strategic alliances with industry leaders Harley-Davidson, Inc. and the KYMCO Group. Established in 2010, LiveWire Group, Inc. is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.