Market Pulse50Neutral

Mastercard IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #104(MA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$500.38

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$500.38
Price
$444.25
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 11%MOS: $355.40

Fundamental Score

76/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

+7 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is estimated at $444.25 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $500.38, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.59% long-term growth rate and an 8.29% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is estimated at $444.25 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $500.38, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.59% long-term growth rate and an 8.29% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$444.25
▼ -11.22% downside
20% margin of safety: $355.40
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.59%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
23.2%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

76/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
11.2% premium to price
31
FCF Yield
4.0% trailing FCF yield
51
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 23.2% vs WACC 11.0% (2.1x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
0.4x net debt to FCF
92
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
17.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
+7 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (80th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 209 (200 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
127 news sentiment+3.5
71 regulatory scrutiny-0.3
Earnings beat+0.0
Restructuring-0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 20h ago
BUYConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Mastercard Incorporated demonstrates strong fundamentals with a high ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital, supported by a stable narrative and solid free cash flow growth. Despite the current price being slightly above fair value, the company's robust financial health and buyback activity make it a compelling buy with patience advised.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may not correct to a more attractive valuation level, limiting upside potential in the near term.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful shifts in score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.59%5 Year CAGR: 11.95%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$18,070$17,890$15,254$12,351$12,292$10,277$7,932$8,911$6,727$5,978$4,866$4,385$3,741$4,434$3,166$2,861$1,848$1,518$584$926$745

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Mastercard Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Mastercard IncorporatedFinancial Services

Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. It facilitates the processing of payment transactions, including authorization, clearing, and settlement, as well as delivers other payment-related products and services. The company offers integrated products and value-added services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; prepaid programs and management services; commercial credit and debit payment products and solutions; and payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts. It also provides value-added products and services comprising cyber and intelligence solutions for parties to transact, as well as proprietary insights, drawing on principled use of consumer, and merchant data services. In addition, the company offers analytics, test and learn, consulting, managed services, loyalty, processing, and payment gateway solutions for e-commerce merchants. Further, it provides open banking and digital identity platforms services. The company offers payment solutions and services under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus. Mastercard Incorporated was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.