Market Pulse44Neutral

McDonald's CorporationOpportunity Rank #221(MCD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$270.10

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$270.10
Price
$262.71
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 3%MOS: $210.17

Fundamental Score

62/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

22/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is estimated at $262.71 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $270.10, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.37% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.09%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is estimated at $262.71 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $270.10, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.37% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.09%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$262.71
▼ -2.74% downside
20% margin of safety: $210.17
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.37%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.69%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

62/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
2.7% premium to price
45
FCF Yield
7.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.7% vs WACC 7.0% (1.0x)
48
Net Debt / FCF
2.8x net debt to FCF
7
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
86
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (17th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 20m ago
Sources: 155 (143 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
123 news sentiment+0.5
Upgrade headlines+0.3
2 macro headwinds+0.2
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
2 margin pressure+0.0
3 earnings beat+0.0

Trend Details

22/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-27.3%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-26.1%
Price vs 50 EMA-5.9%
Price vs 21 EMA27 · -3.9%
Price vs 50 EMA23 · -5.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA33 · -2.2%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -27.3%
6M RS vs SPY5 · -26.1%
Distance from 52W High58 · -20.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
McDonald's Corporation presents a buy opportunity with a supportive narrative score and constructive fundamentals, including a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.0%. Although valuation is near fair value, the company's strong buybacks and free cash flow growth suggest potential for patient investors.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend and a negative spread between ROIC and WACC pose risks to sustained performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor for the stock price to reach at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track the ROIC versus WACC spread for signs of sustained improvement.
  • Follow the narrative trend closely for meaningful shifts in score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.37%5 Year CAGR: 4.64%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$14,031$13,916$12,222$11,969$9,286$11,182$7,906$10,516$9,708$7,405$7,881$8,353$9,314$9,945$10,015$9,880$8,477$7,703$8,053$6,823$6,083

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates McDonald's Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

McDonald's CorporationConsumer Cyclical

McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its renowned fast-food chain worldwide, with a significant presence in both the United States and international markets. Their comprehensive menu offers classic items like hamburgers and cheeseburgers, a variety of chicken options including sandwiches and nuggets, alongside lighter choices such as wraps, french fries, and salads. For breakfast, patrons can select from offerings like biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, and hotcakes. Additionally, the company provides oatmeal, an assortment of desserts including milkshakes, sundaes, and soft-serve ice cream, plus a selection of baked goods. A wide array of soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages completes their offering. By December 31, 2021, the corporation's global network encompassed 40,031 establishments. McDonald's Corporation, founded in 1940, has its main corporate office located in Chicago, Illinois.