Market Pulse59Neutral

Medtronic plcOpportunity Rank #175(MDT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$77.96

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$77.96
Price
$108.52
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 39%MOS: $86.82

Fundamental Score

48/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

-3 vs previous

Trend Score

13/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Medtronic plc (MDT) is estimated at $108.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $77.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.46% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.68%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Medtronic plc (MDT) is estimated at $108.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $77.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.46% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.68%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$108.52
39.20% upside
20% margin of safety: $86.82
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.46%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.95%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

48/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
39.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
9.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.0% vs WACC 9.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
2.1x net debt to FCF
26
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
1.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
-3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (3rd pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 80 (64 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
16 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
48 news sentiment+0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.0
15 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

13/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-32.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-24.6%
Price vs 50 EMA-11.4%
Price vs 21 EMA15 · -6.7%
Price vs 50 EMA8 · -11.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA15 · -5.1%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -32.8%
6M RS vs SPY6 · -24.6%
Distance from 52W High45 · -27.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Medtronic plc is currently undervalued with an estimated fair value 41.5% above its current price, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 9.2%. However, returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in value creation.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may limit long-term profitability and shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.46%5 Year CAGR: 3.82%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,160$8,903$8,374$7,498$8,714$7,595$8,447$8,141$5,752$8,134$6,264$5,473$5,355$5,340$4,909$4,289$4,766$4,541$4,095$3,673$3,452

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Medtronic plc's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Medtronic plcHealthcare

Medtronic plc develops, manufactures, and sells device-based medical therapies to healthcare systems, physicians, clinicians, and patients worldwide. Its Cardiovascular Portfolio segment offers implantable cardiac pacemakers, cardioverter defibrillators, and cardiac resynchronization therapy devices; cardiac ablation products; insertable cardiac monitor systems; TYRX products; and remote monitoring and patient-centered software. It also provides aortic valves, surgical valve replacement and repair products, endovascular stent grafts and accessories, and transcatheter pulmonary valves; and percutaneous coronary intervention products, percutaneous angioplasty balloons, and products. The company's Medical Surgical Portfolio segment offers surgical stapling devices, vessel sealing instruments, wound closure, electrosurgery products, surgical artificial intelligence and robotic-assisted surgery products, hernia mechanical devices, mesh implants, gynecology and lung products, and various therapies to treat diseases, as well as products in the fields of minimally invasive gastrointestinal and hepatologic diagnostics and therapies, patient monitoring, airway management and ventilation therapies, and renal disease. Its Neuroscience Portfolio segment offers products for spinal surgeons; neurosurgeons; neurologists; pain management specialists; anesthesiologists; orthopedic surgeons; urologists; urogynecologists; interventional radiologists; ear, nose, and throat specialists; and systems that incorporate energy surgical instruments. It also provides image-guided surgery and intra-operative imaging systems and robotic guidance systems used in robot assisted spine procedures; and therapies for vasculature in and around the brain. The company's Diabetes Operating Unit segment offers insulin pumps and consumables, continuous glucose monitoring systems, smart insulin pen systems, and consumables and supplies. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.