Market Pulse44Neutral

Medtronic plcOpportunity Rank #108(MDT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$79.27

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$79.27
Price
$104.70
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 32%MOS: $83.76

Fundamental Score

51/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

69/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

29/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Medtronic plc (MDT) is estimated at $104.70 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $79.27, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.47% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Medtronic plc (MDT) is estimated at $104.70 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $79.27, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.47% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$104.70
32.08% upside
20% margin of safety: $83.76
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.47%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.92%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

51/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
32.1% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
9.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.9% vs WACC 9.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
2.8x net debt to FCF
5
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
4.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

69/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (55th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 87%Updated: 40m ago
Sources: 101 (79 News · 22 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
66 news sentiment+1.7
10 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Margin pressure+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Legal risk+0.0
Earnings beat-0.0

Trend Details

29/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-22.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-30.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-2.0%
Price vs 21 EMA50 · +0.0%
Price vs 50 EMA40 · -2.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA34 · -2.0%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -22.8%
6M RS vs SPY3 · -30.2%
Distance from 52W High50 · -24.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 11d ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
Medtronic plc is undervalued with an estimated fair value 37.1% above its current price, supported by a strong narrative score and a healthy free cash flow yield of 9.0%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's stable narrative and robust buyback activity suggest potential for value realization.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's return on invested capital significantly trailing its weighted average cost of capital, which may pressure long-term profitability.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.47%5 Year CAGR: 3.99%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$9,234$8,903$8,374$7,498$8,714$7,595$8,447$8,141$5,752$8,134$6,264$5,473$5,355$5,340$4,909$4,289$4,766$4,541$4,095$3,673

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Medtronic plc's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Medtronic plcHealthcare

Medtronic plc is a leading global medical technology enterprise that invents, develops, manufactures, and distributes an extensive range of device-based medical therapies. These solutions serve healthcare systems, clinicians, physicians, and patients across the world. The company's operations are categorized into several key portfolios: Cardiovascular Portfolio: This segment focuses on cardiac health, providing technologies for heart rhythm management, including implantable pacemakers, defibrillators, and monitoring systems, alongside cardiac ablation tools and remote patient software. It also addresses structural heart issues with products like aortic and pulmonary valves, surgical repair devices, and endovascular stent grafts, in addition to offerings for percutaneous coronary interventions (e.g., angioplasty balloons). Medical Surgical Portfolio: Offering a broad spectrum of surgical instruments and therapies, this division includes staples, vessel sealing devices, wound closure products, and electrosurgical equipment. It also pioneers surgical artificial intelligence and robotic-assisted platforms, alongside solutions for hernia repair, gynecology, lung conditions, minimally invasive gastrointestinal and hepatologic diagnostics, patient monitoring, airway management, ventilation therapies, and renal disease. Neuroscience Portfolio: This division delivers specialized products for a diverse group of medical professionals, such as spinal surgeons, neurosurgeons, neurologists, pain management specialists, and ENT experts. Its offerings span energy surgical instruments, advanced image-guided and intra-operative imaging systems, robotic guidance for spine procedures, and therapies targeting the brain's vasculature. Diabetes Operating Unit: Dedicated to diabetes management, this unit provides innovative solutions like insulin pumps and their associated consumables, continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems, and smart insulin pen technologies. Established in 1949, Medtronic plc maintains its corporate headquarters in Dublin, Ireland.