Market Pulse44Neutral

Meta Platforms, Inc.Opportunity Rank #40(META) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$563.85

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$563.85
Price
$1,606.32
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 185%MOS: $1,285.06

Fundamental Score

88/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

19/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) is estimated at $1,606.32 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $563.85, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.11% long-term growth rate and a 9.46% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) is estimated at $1,606.32 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $563.85, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.11% long-term growth rate and a 9.46% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1,606.32
184.88% upside
20% margin of safety: $1,285.06
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.11%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
9.35%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

88/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
184.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
14.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 9.4% vs WACC 8.0% (1.2x)
58
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
30.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (66th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 44m ago
Sources: 203 (200 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
174 news sentiment+5.0
14 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
3 restructuring-0.3
2 upgrade headlines+0.3
3 layoffs-0.1
4 legal risk-0.1

Trend Details

19/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-19.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-24.1%
Price vs 50 EMA-7.2%
Price vs 21 EMA23 · -4.8%
Price vs 50 EMA18 · -7.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA30 · -2.5%
3M RS vs SPY4 · -19.8%
6M RS vs SPY6 · -24.1%
Distance from 52W High43 · -28.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 74%
Thesis
Meta Platforms, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 179% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high free cash flow yield of 13.8% and a net cash balance sheet. The company demonstrates solid returns with ROIC exceeding its cost of capital and consistent buybacks, indicating robust financial health and growth potential.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend despite strong fundamentals could signal emerging challenges that may impact future performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.32%5 Year CAGR: 21.24%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009
$199,747$185,491$128,584$98,379$81,906$76,250$53,862$51,416$43,189$30,949$20,599$11,122$7,288$5,584$2,847$2,155$991$188

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Meta Platforms, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Meta Platforms, Inc.Communication Services

Meta Platforms Inc., which operated as Facebook, Inc. until its October 2021 rebranding, is a technology enterprise focused on developing innovative products that empower people globally to connect and share with their friends and family. These services are accessible across a variety of digital platforms, including mobile phones, personal computers, virtual reality devices, and wearables. The company's activities are organized into two principal divisions: the Family of Apps and Reality Labs. The Family of Apps segment encompasses well-known platforms such as: Facebook, where users can share content, participate in discussions, explore new interests, and build connections. Instagram, a vibrant community dedicated to sharing visual media like photos and videos, sending private messages, and utilizing features such as user feeds, ephemeral stories, short video reels, live streams, and integrated shopping functionalities. Messenger, a dedicated application that facilitates text, audio, and video communications, enabling individuals to communicate with their social networks, communities, and even businesses across different devices and operating systems. WhatsApp, a widely adopted and secure messaging service employed by individuals and enterprises for private communication and financial transactions. The Reality Labs division concentrates on pioneering augmented and virtual reality technologies. This segment is responsible for creating consumer-grade hardware, sophisticated software, and engaging content, all aimed at fostering a sense of connection among people, regardless of their physical location or time zone. Meta Platforms Inc. was founded in 2004 and its corporate headquarters are situated in Menlo Park, California.

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq