Market Pulse59Neutral

Meta Platforms, Inc.Opportunity Rank #48(META) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$616.81

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$616.81
Price
$1,589.38
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 158%MOS: $1,271.50

Fundamental Score

88/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

30/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) is estimated at $1,589.38 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $616.81, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.10% long-term growth rate and a 9.52% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) is estimated at $1,589.38 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $616.81, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.10% long-term growth rate and a 9.52% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1,589.38
157.68% upside
20% margin of safety: $1,271.50
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.10%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
9.35%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

88/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
157.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
12.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 9.4% vs WACC 8.0% (1.2x)
58
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
30.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (62nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 90%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 200 (200 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
169 news sentiment+8.0
3 upgrade headlines+1.2
9 layoffs-0.9
7 legal risk-0.7
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
5 earnings beat+0.3

Trend Details

30/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-14.6%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-13.0%
Price vs 21 EMA-3.4%
Price vs 21 EMA30 · -3.4%
Price vs 50 EMA32 · -3.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA47 · -0.3%
3M RS vs SPY8 · -14.6%
6M RS vs SPY19 · -13.0%
Distance from 52W High54 · -22.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Meta Platforms, Inc. is a strong buy with an estimated fair value 155.9% above its current price, supported by a robust fundamental score of 88 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 12.8%. The company's improving narrative score and positive ROIC spread over WACC further reinforce its bullish outlook.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the valuation discount narrows below 10% or if ROIC falls below the cost of capital in upcoming quarters, undermining the investment thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.32%5 Year CAGR: 21.24%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009
$199,747$185,491$128,584$98,379$81,906$76,250$53,862$51,416$43,189$30,949$20,599$11,122$7,288$5,584$2,847$2,155$991$188

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Meta Platforms, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Meta Platforms, Inc.Communication Services

Meta Platforms, Inc. engages in the development of products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality headsets, and wearables worldwide. It operates in two segments, Family of Apps and Reality Labs. The Family of Apps segment offers Facebook, which enables people to share, discuss, discover, and connect with interests; Instagram, a community for sharing photos, videos, and private messages, as well as feed, stories, reels, video, live, and shops; Messenger, a messaging application for people to connect with friends, family, communities, and businesses across platforms and devices through text, audio, and video calls; and WhatsApp, a messaging application that is used by people and businesses to communicate and transact privately. The Reality Labs segment provides augmented and virtual reality related products comprising consumer hardware, software, and content that help people feel connected, anytime, and anywhere. The company was formerly known as Facebook, Inc. and changed its name to Meta Platforms, Inc. in October 2021. Meta Platforms, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.