Market Pulse44Neutral

3M CompanyOpportunity Rank #255(MMM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$163.22

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$163.22
Price
$74.42
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 54%MOS: $59.54

Fundamental Score

28/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

65/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

63/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of 3M Company (MMM) is estimated at $74.42 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $163.22, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -0.17% long-term growth rate and a 9.03% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of 3M Company (MMM) is estimated at $74.42 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $163.22, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -0.17% long-term growth rate and a 9.03% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$74.42
-54.41% downside
20% margin of safety: $59.54
Years: 10Growth Rate: -0.17%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.74%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

28/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
54.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
4.5% trailing FCF yield
63
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.6x)
31
Net Debt / FCF
2.2x net debt to FCF
25
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-10.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

65/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (95th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 88%Updated: 24m ago
Sources: 33 (28 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 regulatory scrutiny+1.1
21 news sentiment+0.4
Demand slowdown-0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
Restructuring-0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

63/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-6.5%
Price vs 50 EMA+6.6%
Price vs 21 EMA+4.6%
Price vs 21 EMA76 · +4.6%
Price vs 50 EMA78 · +6.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA65 · +1.9%
3M RS vs SPY53 · +0.8%
6M RS vs SPY24 · -10.2%
Distance from 52W High87 · -6.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
3M Company is currently overvalued with its market price nearly 47% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns that lag the cost of capital. The company's financial health is bearish, with declining free cash flow growth and a negative spread between ROIC and WACC.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that 3M's returns may not improve relative to its cost of capital, prolonging value erosion and justifying the current discount to fair value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -0.17%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -9.79%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,858$3,216$3,000$8,295$7,340$9,057$9,614$8,769$8,016$7,613$8,082$7,881$8,119$7,482$6,784$6,663$6,265$5,844$6,004$5,697$5,007

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates 3M Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

3M CompanyIndustrials

3M Company operates as a global technology conglomerate with diverse interests. Its extensive operations are strategically divided into four primary business segments: Safety and Industrial, Transportation and Electronics, Health Care, and Consumer. The Safety and Industrial division supplies a broad array of products, including specialized abrasives and finishing tools for metalworking, automotive body repair kits, fastening systems for personal hygiene items, various masking and packaging materials, electrical components for construction, maintenance, and power distribution, strong structural adhesives and tapes, comprehensive personal protective equipment for respiratory, auditory, visual, and fall protection, and mineral granules for roofing shingles. Within the Transportation and Electronics sector, offerings encompass advanced ceramic solutions, specialized attachment tapes and films, sophisticated sound and temperature management systems for vehicles, high-quality large-format graphic films for advertising and fleet branding, optical films, electronic assembly solutions, robust packaging and interconnection technologies, and reflective materials crucial for highway and vehicle safety. The Health Care segment provides essential solutions such as food safety indicators, software for medical procedure coding and reimbursement, a wide range of products for skin and wound care, infection prevention, dental and orthodontic supplies, and advanced filtration and purification systems. Finally, the Consumer unit delivers an assortment of household and personal products, including bandages, braces, support devices, and personal respirators; various home cleaning supplies; retail-grade abrasives, paint accessories, DIY car care products, picture hanging solutions, and consumer-focused air quality improvements; along with a selection of stationery items. The company distributes its extensive product portfolio through both online platforms and a comprehensive traditional network, leveraging wholesalers, retailers, jobbers, distributors, and authorized dealers. This enterprise was founded in 1902 and maintains its corporate headquarters in St. Paul, Minnesota.

3M Company (MMM) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq