Market Pulse59Neutral

Altria Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #114(MO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$69.04

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$69.04
Price
$69.03
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 0%MOS: $55.22

Fundamental Score

61/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

59/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is estimated at $69.03 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $69.04, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.23% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.15%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is estimated at $69.03 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $69.04, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.23% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.15%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$69.03
-0.01% downside
20% margin of safety: $55.22
Years: 10Growth Rate: 1.23%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.52%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

61/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
0.0% premium to price
50
FCF Yield
7.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.5% vs WACC 7.0% (1.6x)
82
Net Debt / FCF
2.3x net debt to FCF
21
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
1.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (75th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 99%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 133 (127 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
94 news sentiment+2.1
28 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
3 earnings beat+0.5
Downgrade headlines+0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

59/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-8.6%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+10.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+2.3%
Price vs 21 EMA45 · -0.7%
Price vs 50 EMA58 · +1.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA68 · +2.3%
3M RS vs SPY39 · -2.6%
6M RS vs SPY76 · +10.3%
Distance from 52W High83 · -8.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 63%
Thesis
Altria Group, Inc. demonstrates a strong investment case with a ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 4.5 percentage points and a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.9%. The company's fundamentals are constructive and supported by an improving narrative score of 80, indicating stable positive momentum.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the ROIC may fall below the cost of capital in upcoming quarters, undermining the company's value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful shifts in score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 1.23%5 Year CAGR: 1.34%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,165$9,506$8,895$9,483$8,461$8,574$8,616$8,083$8,629$5,121$3,980$6,039$4,826$4,506$4,027$3,718$2,935$3,716$5,122$11,762$16,040

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Altria Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Altria Group, Inc.Consumer Defensive

Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. The company provides cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; cigars and pipe tobacco principally under the Black & Mild brand; and moist smokeless tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands, as well as provides on! oral nicotine pouches. It sells its tobacco products primarily to wholesalers, including distributors; and large retail organizations, such as chain stores. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.