Market Pulse44Neutral

Mega Matrix Corp.(MPU) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$0.32

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$0.32
Price
-$0.06
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 119%MOS: -$0.05

Fundamental Score

11/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

0/100
Unavailable

Trend data unavailable

The intrinsic value of Mega Matrix Corp. (MPU) is estimated at $-0.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $0.32, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -37.12% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.07%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Mega Matrix Corp. (MPU) is estimated at $-0.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $0.32, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -37.12% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.07%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$0.06
▼ -118.69% downside
20% margin of safety: -$0.05
Years: 10Growth Rate: -37.12%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-49.73%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

11/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
118.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-49.1% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -49.7% vs WACC 7.0% (-7.1x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
1.0x net debt to FCF
60
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-39.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (47th pct)Weighted across 1 driver
Trend: StableConfidence: 37%Updated: 41m ago
Sources: 2 (2 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.0

Trend Details

0/100
NeutralRules-based daily model
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 11d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Mega Matrix Corp. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 162.8% below the current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health and operational performance.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in return on invested capital relative to the weighted average cost of capital could further impair value.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -37.11%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -28.77%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
-$7-$10$4-$3-$6-$3$4$8$41$47$66$12$80$32$56$10$14$29$29$48$14

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Mega Matrix Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Mega Matrix Corp.Industrials

Mega Matrix Corp., operating with its subsidiaries, primarily focuses on the GameFi industry within the expanding metaverse ecosystem. The company facilitates participation in the Ethereum blockchain by offering a platform where users can stake funds on nodes. This activity is vital for validating transactions and appending new blocks to the blockchain network. Additionally, the firm extends its services to include advisory and management solutions for aircraft. Formed in 1997, the entity was formerly known as AeroCentury Corp. before officially rebranding to Mega Matrix Corp. in March 2022. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Palo Alto, California.