Mercury Systems, Inc.Opportunity Rank #238(MRCY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)
Current Price
$111.76
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026
Price vs Intrinsic Value
Fundamental Score
Weighted across 6 signals
Narrative Score
No change vs previous
Trend Score
As of 2026-06-22
The intrinsic value of Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) is estimated at $28.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $111.76, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.88% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.53%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.
The intrinsic value of Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) is estimated at $28.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $111.76, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.88% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.53%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.Valuation Details
Capital Efficiency
The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.
Fundamental Details
Narrative Details
Trend Details
Investment Coach
- Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
- Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
- Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend indicating score direction changes.
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value
Intrinziq estimates Mercury Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.
Mercury Systems, Inc.Industrials
Mercury Systems, Inc. is a technology firm dedicated to the creation and delivery of a wide range of advanced components, modules, and integrated subsystems, primarily catering to the aerospace and defense industries. The company's operations span globally, with a presence in the United States, Europe, and the Asia Pacific regions. Its sophisticated solutions are vital to approximately 300 programs, supporting 25 defense contractors and numerous commercial aviation customers. The company's extensive product line includes intricate components such as power amplifiers, limiters, switches, oscillators, filters, equalizers, digital and analog converters, various chips, monolithic microwave integrated circuits (MMICs), and advanced memory and storage devices. Furthermore, it offers sophisticated modules and sub-assemblies, including embedded processing boards, switched fabric boards, digital receiver boards, multi-chip modules, integrated radio frequency (RF) and microwave multi-function assemblies, tuners, transceivers, as well as specialized graphics, video, Ethernet, and input/output boards. Mercury Systems also supplies complete integrated subsystems. Beyond these offerings, the company is actively involved in designing and developing critical technologies like digital radio frequency memory units for modern electronic warfare applications, radar environment simulation and test systems for defense and intelligence operations, signals intelligence payloads and electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) technologies optimized for small unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platforms, and advanced onboard UAV processor systems facilitating real-time wide area motion imagery. Established in 1981, the firm, initially named Mercury Computer Systems, Inc., officially rebranded to Mercury Systems, Inc. in November 2012, and its headquarters are located in Andover, Massachusetts.