MRNA

$40.87

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, 11.02% trendline growth.
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-$58.19

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

-$46.55
-213.90% downside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
-15.2%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
3
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
213.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-8.1% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -15.2% vs WACC 7.0% (-2.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
3.5x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-74.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.
Narrative Score
66
Improving
Weighted across 5 recent drivers · Last 30 days+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline: Above Avg (68th pct)
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 88 (News 83 · Analyst 5)
Drivers
69 news sentiment+1.6
8 regulatory scrutiny-0.3
5 legal risk+0.2
Earnings beat+0.1
5 analyst reiterations0.0
Other Metrics
P/E-5.1
Profit Margin-140.3%
Owner Earnings-$2.22b
One Dollar Premise0.00%
Debt/Equity0.28
Current Ratio3.91
PEG0.713
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
201620172018201920202021202220232024
$100-$273-$225-$427$2,094$13,904$5,381-$2,411-$1,293
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Moderna, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Moderna, Inc.Healthcare

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.