Market Pulse44Neutral

Micron Technology, Inc.Opportunity Rank #137(MU) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$1,211.38

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,211.38
Price
$593.16
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 51%MOS: $474.53

Fundamental Score

55/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

100/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is estimated at $593.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,211.38, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.43% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.11%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is estimated at $593.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,211.38, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.43% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.11%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$593.16
-51.03% downside
20% margin of safety: $474.53
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.43%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
9.92%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

55/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
51.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.7% trailing FCF yield
43
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 9.9% vs WACC 8.0% (1.2x)
62
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
25.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (53rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 226 (200 News · 26 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
184 news sentiment+18.4
Upgrade headlines+0.5
12 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Earnings beat+0.1
2 downgrade headlines+0.0
26 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

100/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+171.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+426.3%
Distance from 52-Week High0.0%
Price vs 21 EMA100 · +24.9%
Price vs 50 EMA100 · +51.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA100 · +20.9%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +171.7%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +426.3%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 11d ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Micron Technology, Inc. is currently trading at a significant premium with a fair value estimate 31.8% below its current price, supported by a stable narrative score and constructive fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.1%. The company's return on invested capital exceeds its cost of capital, indicating potential for value creation despite the premium valuation.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may not correct to a more reasonable discount to fair value, leading to overvaluation risk.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital over coming quarters
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts in direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.43%5 Year CAGR: 17.80%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$51,025$33,382$16,893$9,235$27,248$22,498$16,529$23,044$26,485$13,406$9,031$9,229$8,357$3,055$3,813$5,034$3,712$1,694$3,547$4,540$3,384

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Micron Technology, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Micron Technology, Inc.Technology

Micron Technology, Inc. is a global leader specializing in the development, manufacture, and sale of advanced semiconductor memory and storage solutions. Its operations are structured across four primary business segments: Compute and Networking, Mobile, Storage, and Embedded. The company's product portfolio encompasses a range of memory and data storage technologies. These include high-speed, low-latency Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) components for rapid data retrieval; non-volatile, re-programmable NAND flash storage devices; and fast-read, non-volatile, re-writable NOR memory chips. These innovative solutions are offered under its well-known Micron and Crucial brands, as well as through private label partnerships. Micron's extensive offerings cater to a diverse array of markets and applications. This includes critical infrastructure like cloud servers and enterprise data centers, personal computing (client and graphics), mobile devices such as smartphones, networking equipment, automotive systems, industrial applications, and various consumer electronics. The company utilizes a multi-faceted approach to market its products, employing a direct sales force, independent sales representatives, and a network of distributors and retailers. Additionally, it leverages a web-based direct sales channel and collaborates with various channel and distribution partners. Founded in 1978, Micron Technology, Inc. is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.