Market Pulse59Neutral

Cloudflare, Inc.Opportunity Rank #306(NET) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$257.05

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$257.05
Price
$53.49
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 79%MOS: $42.79

Fundamental Score

33/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

23/100
Broken

-10 vs previous

Trend Score

43/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) is estimated at $53.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $257.05, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 10.71% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) is estimated at $53.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $257.05, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 10.71% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$53.49
▼ -79.19% downside
20% margin of safety: $42.79
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.17%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-2.01%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

33/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
79.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.1% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -2.0% vs WACC 11.0% (-0.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
76.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

23/100
Broken
-10 vs previous · +4 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (0th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 138 (123 News · 15 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 restructuring-1.4
38 regulatory scrutiny-1.0
3 layoffs-1.0
68 news sentiment+0.6
4 earnings beat-0.4
3 downgrade headlines+0.3

Trend Details

43/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-23.0%
Price vs 21 EMA-9.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+4.1%
Price vs 21 EMA9 · -9.1%
Price vs 50 EMA25 · -5.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA79 · +4.1%
3M RS vs SPY74 · +6.4%
6M RS vs SPY7 · -23.0%
Distance from 52W High53 · -23.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Cloudflare, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 78% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and a negative return spread versus its cost of capital. Despite an improving narrative trend, the company's free cash flow yield remains thin, indicating limited financial flexibility.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Cloudflare's returns may fail to improve relative to its cost of capital, perpetuating value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor for the stock price to decline to at least a mid-teens percentage discount to fair value.
  • Track the spread between ROIC and WACC for signs of sustained improvement.
  • Follow changes in the narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the fundamental score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 20.62%5 Year CAGR: 41.97%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
$994$1,009$565$389$287$172$58$18-$8$26$5

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Cloudflare, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Cloudflare, Inc.Technology

CloudFlare, Inc. operates as a cloud services provider that delivers a range of services to businesses worldwide. The company offers an integrated cloud-based security solution to secure a range of combination of platforms, including public cloud, private cloud, on-premise, software-as-a-service applications, and IoT devices. Its security products comprise cloud firewall, bot management, distributed denial of service, IoT, SSL/TLS, secure origin connection, and rate limiting products. The company also offers performance solutions, which include content delivery and intelligent routing, as well as content, mobile, and image optimization solutions. In addition, it provides reliability solutions comprising load balancing, anycast network, virtual backbone, DNS, DNS resolver, online, and virtual waiting room solutions. Further, the company offers Cloudflare internal infrastructure solutions, including on-ramps, which connect users, devices, or locations to its network; and filters, which are the products that protect, inspect, and privilege data. Additionally, it provides developer-based solutions, such as serverless computing/programmable network, website development, domain registration, Cloudflare apps, analytics, and data localization management; Consumer DNS Resolver, a consumer app to browse the Internet; and Consumer VPN for consumers to secure and accelerate traffic on mobile devices. The company serves customers in the technology, healthcare, financial services, consumer and retail, and non-profit industries, as well as government. CloudFlare, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.