Market Pulse59Neutral

New Gold Inc.Opportunity Rank #61(NGD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$9.08

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$9.08
Price
$23.39
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 158%MOS: $18.71

Fundamental Score

90/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

40/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of New Gold Inc. (NGD) is estimated at $23.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $9.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.90% long-term growth rate and an 11.53% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of New Gold Inc. (NGD) is estimated at $23.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $9.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.90% long-term growth rate and an 11.53% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$23.39
▲ 157.60% upside
20% margin of safety: $18.71
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.90%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
12.2%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

90/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
157.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
20.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 12.2% vs WACC 9.0% (1.4x)
68
Net Debt / FCF
0.0x net debt to FCF
99
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
20.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (12th pct)Weighted across 2 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 49%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 14 (14 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
12 news sentiment+0.0
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.0

Trend Details

40/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08278 daily bars used
Price vs 21 EMA-13.9%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+27.7%
Price vs 50 EMA-14.1%
Price vs 21 EMA2 · -13.9%
Price vs 50 EMA5 · -14.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA48 · -0.2%
3M RS vs SPY58 · +1.9%
6M RS vs SPY96 · +27.7%
Distance from 52W High35 · -32.3%

Investment Coach

Updated 20h ago
BUYConfidence: 80%
Thesis
New Gold Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 155% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding its cost of capital and a healthy free cash flow yield. The company demonstrates robust financial health with low net debt relative to free cash flow and consistent buybacks, indicating shareholder value creation.
Key Risk
A key risk is that the company's ROIC may fall below its cost of capital in future quarters, undermining its profitability and valuation support.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.90%5 Year CAGR: 21.01%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,482$1,491$664$554$484$571$579$517$459$909$849$652$548$461$758$643$330$196$159$60$16

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates New Gold Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

New Gold Inc.Basic Materials

New Gold Inc., an intermediate gold mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and operation of mineral properties. It primarily explores for gold, silver, and copper deposits. The company's principal operating properties include 100% interests in the Rainy River mine located in Ontario, Canada; and New Afton mine situated in British Columbia, Canada. It also operates the Cerro San Pedro mine in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.