Market Pulse53Neutral

Natera, Inc.Opportunity Rank #252(NTRA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$264.69

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$264.69
Price
$56.96
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 78%MOS: $45.57

Fundamental Score

33/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

75/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Natera, Inc. (NTRA) is estimated at $56.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $264.69, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 10.60% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Natera, Inc. (NTRA) is estimated at $56.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $264.69, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 10.60% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$56.96
-78.48% downside
20% margin of safety: $45.57
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.27%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-14.59%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

33/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
78.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
0.9% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -14.6% vs WACC 8.0% (-1.8x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
245.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (76th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 51 (39 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
10 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
26 news sentiment+0.4
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
Legal risk+0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

75/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+26.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+6.9%
Distance from 52-Week High-7.7%
Price vs 21 EMA47 · -0.5%
Price vs 50 EMA77 · +6.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA90 · +6.9%
3M RS vs SPY99 · +26.0%
6M RS vs SPY52 · +0.6%
Distance from 52W High85 · -7.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Natera, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 74% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and a negative return on invested capital relative to its cost of capital. Despite some improving narrative signals, the company's free cash flow yield remains thin at just over 1%.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating ongoing value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and fundamental score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 112.83%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 262.42%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$330$321$202-$208-$384-$294-$163-$58-$67-$87-$51-$30$20-$16-$10

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Natera, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Natera, Inc.Healthcare

Natera, Inc. is a diagnostics company focused on developing and commercializing a wide array of molecular testing services globally. Its portfolio includes several key offerings: Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test (NIPT) that screens for chromosomal abnormalities in a fetus using a blood sample from the mother, and also determines zygosity in twin pregnancies. Vistara, designed to identify single-gene disorders by screening for specific single-gene mutations. Horizon, a comprehensive carrier screening test to determine an individual's carrier status for various genetic diseases. Spectrum, utilized during in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles to detect chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions. Anora, a miscarriage analysis product that examines fetal chromosomes to help understand the cause of pregnancy loss. Non-invasive paternity testing, which establishes paternity during gestation using blood samples from both the pregnant mother and the alleged father. Beyond reproductive health, Natera also provides specialized tests: Signatera, a sophisticated circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) technology capable of screening for a generic set of mutations, independent of the individual's specific tumor characteristics. Prospera, a test used to assess and monitor organ transplant rejection. Additionally, the company offers Constellation, a cloud-based software platform that provides laboratory clients with access to Natera's proprietary algorithms and bioinformatics, enabling them to validate and launch their own tests. Natera distributes its products through a direct sales team and an extensive network of approximately 100 laboratory and distribution partners. The company has strategic partnerships, including one with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of NGS-based genetic testing assays, and another with Foundation Medicine, Inc. to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays. Founded in 2003, Natera, Inc. is headquartered in Austin, Texas. It was formerly known as Gene Security Network, Inc. before changing its name in 2012.