Market Pulse44Neutral

NVIDIA CorporationOpportunity Rank #189(NVDA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$208.65

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$208.65
Price
$88.31
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 58%MOS: $70.65

Fundamental Score

65/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

64/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is estimated at $88.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $208.65, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.33% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is estimated at $88.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $208.65, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.33% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$88.31
-57.68% downside
20% margin of safety: $70.65
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.33%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
46.97%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

65/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
57.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.6% trailing FCF yield
15
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 47.0% vs WACC 7.0% (6.7x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
80.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (55th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 24m ago
Sources: 231 (200 News · 31 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
178 news sentiment+6.8
2 upgrade headlines+0.3
Margin pressure+0.1
19 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
31 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

64/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+11.2%
Distance from 52-Week High-11.5%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+6.0%
Price vs 21 EMA45 · -0.8%
Price vs 50 EMA54 · +0.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA63 · +1.6%
3M RS vs SPY73 · +6.0%
6M RS vs SPY78 · +11.2%
Distance from 52W High77 · -11.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
NVIDIA Corporation exhibits strong fundamentals with a high ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and a supportive narrative, indicating robust operational performance. However, the current market price is substantially above the estimated fair value, suggesting caution.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price remains significantly overvalued relative to its fair value, which could lead to downside pressure.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful directional shifts.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.33%5 Year CAGR: 80.24%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$132,220$67,325$29,159$7,474$10,084$6,950$5,250$4,343$4,095$1,848$1,261$1,028$1,090$1,007$1,048$774$565$657$1,458$732

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates NVIDIA Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

NVIDIA CorporationTechnology

NVIDIA Corporation stands as a prominent provider of advanced graphics, computational, and networking solutions, operating across the United States, Taiwan, China, and numerous international markets. Its Graphics division encompasses GeForce GPUs, central to PC gaming and personal computing experiences, along with the GeForce NOW cloud gaming service and its supporting infrastructure, as well as dedicated solutions for various gaming platforms. For professional visualization, it provides Quadro and NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstations, further offering vGPU software designed for cloud-centric visual and virtual computing, automotive platforms for in-vehicle infotainment, and the Omniverse software suite, facilitating 3D design and virtual world creation. The Compute & Networking segment is a cornerstone for AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and accelerated data center platforms. It integrates Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions, delivers automotive AI Cockpit technologies, fosters autonomous driving development through strategic agreements, and offers comprehensive autonomous vehicle solutions. This segment also manufactures cryptocurrency mining processors, supplies Jetson platforms for robotics and other embedded applications, and offers enterprise AI software, including NVIDIA AI Enterprise. These diverse offerings find widespread application across the gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive sectors. NVIDIA distributes its portfolio through a broad ecosystem, engaging original equipment and device manufacturers, system integrators, add-in board makers, retail channels, software vendors, internet and cloud service providers, automotive companies (both manufacturers and tier-1 suppliers), mapping firms, nascent technology ventures, and other industry stakeholders. A notable strategic partnership exists with Kroger Co. Founded in 1993, NVIDIA Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Santa Clara, California.