Market Pulse50Neutral

NVIDIA CorporationOpportunity Rank #181(NVDA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$175.64

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$175.64
Price
$71.95
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 59%MOS: $57.56

Fundamental Score

65/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is estimated at $71.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $175.64, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.25% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is estimated at $71.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $175.64, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.25% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$71.95
▼ -59.04% downside
20% margin of safety: $57.56
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.25%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
47.36%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

65/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
59.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.5% trailing FCF yield
14
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 47.4% vs WACC 7.0% (6.8x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
73.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (60th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 240 (200 News · 40 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
146 news sentiment+7.7
5 upgrade headlines+1.9
49 regulatory scrutiny+1.0
40 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
NVIDIA Corporation exhibits strong fundamentals with a high ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and an improving narrative score, indicating robust operational performance. However, the current market price is substantially above the estimated fair value, suggesting potential overvaluation.
Key Risk
The key risk is the significant overvaluation, with the current price nearly 59% above the estimated fair value, which could lead to downside if market sentiment shifts.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful directional shifts.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.25%5 Year CAGR: 73.34%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$108,760$67,325$29,159$7,474$10,084$6,950$5,250$4,343$4,095$1,848$1,261$1,028$1,090$1,007$1,048$774$565$657$1,458$732

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates NVIDIA Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

NVIDIA CorporationTechnology

NVIDIA Corporation provides graphics, and compute and networking solutions in the United States, Taiwan, China, and internationally. The company's Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; vGPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems; and Omniverse software for building 3D designs and virtual worlds. Its Compute & Networking segment provides Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing; Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions; automotive AI Cockpit, autonomous driving development agreements, and autonomous vehicle solutions; cryptocurrency mining processors; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms; and NVIDIA AI Enterprise and other software. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, datacenter, and automotive markets. NVIDIA Corporation sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system builders, add-in board manufacturers, retailers/distributors, independent software vendors, Internet and cloud service providers, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, mapping companies, start-ups, and other ecosystem participants. It has a strategic collaboration with Kroger Co. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.