Market Pulse59Neutral

NXP Semiconductors N.V.Opportunity Rank #195(NXPI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$290.22

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$290.22
Price
$168.16
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 42%MOS: $134.53

Fundamental Score

28/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

79/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

97/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) is estimated at $168.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $290.22, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.37% long-term growth rate and a 10.29% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) is estimated at $168.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $290.22, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.37% long-term growth rate and a 10.29% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$168.16
-42.06% downside
20% margin of safety: $134.53
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.37%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.14%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

28/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
42.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
4.3% trailing FCF yield
57
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.1% vs WACC 10.0% (0.4x)
21
Net Debt / FCF
2.6x net debt to FCF
13
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

79/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (93rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 72 (53 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
36 news sentiment+3.4
11 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
3 earnings beat+0.4
Upgrade headlines+0.4
3 analyst downgrades-0.1
2 downgrade headlines+0.1

Trend Details

97/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Price vs 50 EMA+24.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+24.6%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+31.2%
Price vs 21 EMA96 · +13.9%
Price vs 50 EMA99 · +24.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA95 · +9.5%
3M RS vs SPY98 · +24.6%
6M RS vs SPY97 · +31.2%
Distance from 52W High94 · -2.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
NXP Semiconductors N.V. is currently overvalued by approximately 37.7% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, despite a strong and stable narrative score. The company's financial metrics indicate bearish conditions, suggesting limited upside potential at the current price level.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.37%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.58%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008
$3,135$3,217$3,509$4,519$5,122$4,009$3,004$3,001$5,030$3,065$2,751$1,683$1,833$1,141$1,002$411$634-$641-$207

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates NXP Semiconductors N.V.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

NXP Semiconductors N.V.Technology

NXP Semiconductors N.V. offers various semiconductor products. The company's product portfolio includes microcontrollers; application processors, including i.MX application processors, and i.MX 8 and 9 family of applications processors; communication processors; wireless connectivity solutions, such as near field communications, ultra-wideband, Bluetooth low-energy, Zigbee, and Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi/Bluetooth integrated SoCs; analog and interface devices; radio frequency power amplifiers; and security controllers, as well as semiconductor-based environmental and inertial sensors, including pressure, inertial, magnetic, and gyroscopic sensors. The company's product solutions are used in a range of applications, including automotive, industrial and Internet of Things, mobile, and communication infrastructure. The company markets its products to various original equipment manufacturers, contract manufacturers, and distributors. It operates in China, the Netherlands, the United States, Singapore, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and internationally. The company was formerly known as KASLION Acquisition B.V and changed its name to NXP Semiconductors N.V. in May 2010. NXP Semiconductors N.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Eindhoven, the Netherlands.