Market Pulse59Neutral

Nextpower Inc.Opportunity Rank #180(NXT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$120.86

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$120.86
Price
$101.99
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 16%MOS: $81.59

Fundamental Score

64/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

69/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Nextpower Inc. (NXT) is estimated at $101.99 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $120.86, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.29% long-term growth rate and a 10.89% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Nextpower Inc. (NXT) is estimated at $101.99 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $120.86, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.29% long-term growth rate and a 10.89% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$101.99
▼ -15.61% downside
20% margin of safety: $81.59
Years: 10Growth Rate: 12.29%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
14.04%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

64/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
15.6% premium to price
24
FCF Yield
3.7% trailing FCF yield
44
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 14.0% vs WACC 9.0% (1.6x)
78
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
22.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (80th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 57 (52 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
33 news sentiment+0.8
18 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
Earnings beat+0.1
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

69/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-3.5%
Price vs 50 EMA+8.9%
Price vs 21 EMA+6.1%
Price vs 21 EMA81 · +6.1%
Price vs 50 EMA85 · +8.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA71 · +2.7%
3M RS vs SPY38 · -3.1%
6M RS vs SPY60 · +3.7%
Distance from 52W High93 · -3.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Nextpower Inc. shares appear fully priced with a current price above the estimated fair value, despite strong fundamentals including a ROIC that exceeds the cost of capital by 5 percentage points and a net cash balance sheet. The company shows constructive fundamentals and stable narrative trends, but upside potential is limited given the valuation discount of -17%.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may decline if the ROIC fails to stay above the cost of capital or if fundamentals weaken, given the current premium valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital over coming quarters
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful shifts in score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 36.74%5 Year CAGR: 47.22%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$672$690$436$111-$141$97$243-$9

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Nextpower Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Nextpower Inc.Technology

Nextracker Inc., an energy solutions company, provides solar tracker solutions for PV projects. The company offers solar trackers, such as Bifacial PV modules for large-scale solar; NX Horizon for solar power plants; NX Gemini two-in-portrait solar tracker that optimizes lifetime value and performance of power plants for project developers and asset owners; and NX Horizon XTR, an all-terrain solar tracker. It also provides TrueCapture, an intelligent and self-adjusting tracker control system for PV power plants; and NX Navigator, an operational control and risk mitigation software. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Fremont, California. Nextracker Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Flex Ltd.