Market Pulse59Neutral

Ondas Holdings Inc.Opportunity Rank #317(ONDS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$8.89

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$8.89
Price
$2.54
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 71%MOS: $2.03

Fundamental Score

8/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

44/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

32/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS) is estimated at $2.54 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $8.89, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -42.70% long-term growth rate and a 12.27% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS) is estimated at $2.54 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $8.89, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -42.70% long-term growth rate and a 12.27% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$2.54
▼ -71.43% downside
20% margin of safety: $2.03
Years: 10Growth Rate: -42.70%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-17.3%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

8/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
71.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-0.9% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -17.3% vs WACC 8.0% (-2.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
15.9x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-49.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

44/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (3rd pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 75 (71 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
11 regulatory scrutiny-0.3
59 news sentiment-0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

32/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+42.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-13.3%
Price vs 21 EMA-7.6%
Price vs 21 EMA12 · -7.6%
Price vs 50 EMA14 · -8.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA39 · -1.3%
3M RS vs SPY10 · -13.3%
6M RS vs SPY99 · +42.1%
Distance from 52W High29 · -35.3%

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Ondas Holdings Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price 71.2% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company exhibits elevated leverage and deteriorating free cash flow metrics, indicating financial distress.
Key Risk
Continued negative spread between ROIC and WACC combined with high leverage could further impair Ondas Holdings' financial stability and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -42.71%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -46.63%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
-$38-$37-$32-$34-$35-$16-$7-$14-$80$0$0$-$1

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ondas Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ondas Holdings Inc.Technology

Ondas Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides private wireless, drone, and automated data solutions. The company operates in two segments, Ondas Networks and American Robotics. The company designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and supports FullMAX, a software defined radio (SDR) platform for wide-area broadband networks. Its FullMAX SDR platform enables secure and reliable industrial-grade connectivity for truly mission-critical applications. The company also offers Scout Drone, an AI-powered drone with imaging payloads; the ScoutBase, a ruggedized base station for housing, charging, data processing, and cloud transfer; and ScoutView, an American robotics analytics and user interface software package. It serves users in rail, energy, mining, agriculture, and critical infrastructure markets in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.