Market Pulse44Neutral

On Holding AGOpportunity Rank #211(ONON) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$36.21

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$36.21
Price
$34.21
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 6%MOS: $27.37

Fundamental Score

68/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

+6 vs previous

Trend Score

24/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of On Holding AG (ONON) is estimated at $34.21 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $36.21, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.92% long-term growth rate and a 12.30% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of On Holding AG (ONON) is estimated at $34.21 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $36.21, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.92% long-term growth rate and a 12.30% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$34.21
▼ -5.52% downside
20% margin of safety: $27.37
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.92%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
10.21%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

68/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
5.5% premium to price
41
FCF Yield
4.8% trailing FCF yield
70
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.2% vs WACC 8.0% (1.3x)
64
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
160.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
+6 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (67th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 45 (40 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Upgrade headlines+0.6
38 news sentiment+0.3
Earnings beat+0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

24/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-35.6%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-18.6%
Price vs 21 EMA-4.6%
Price vs 21 EMA24 · -4.6%
Price vs 50 EMA29 · -4.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA52 · +0.3%
3M RS vs SPY4 · -18.6%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -35.6%
Distance from 52W High33 · -33.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
On Holding AG demonstrates a solid investment case with a ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 2.2 percentage points and constructive fundamentals supported by a strong free cash flow growth rate. Despite a current valuation slightly above fair value, the company's net cash position and stable narrative trend support a medium-confidence buy recommendation.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price does not decline to a more attractive valuation discount, limiting upside potential.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital in upcoming quarters
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful shifts in score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 41.88%5 Year CAGR: 54.69%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$582$485$712$345-$178$66$5$5

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates On Holding AG's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

On Holding AGConsumer Cyclical

On Holding AG operates on a global scale, specializing in the design, production, and distribution of a diverse array of athletic merchandise. Its primary offerings encompass high-performance footwear, sportswear, and complementary sports accessories. The company makes its products available to consumers via multiple channels, including collaborations with independent retail partners, a network of distributors, its dedicated e-commerce platform, and proprietary brand stores. This enterprise, headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, was established in 2010.