Market Pulse44Neutral

Oracle CorporationOpportunity Rank #67(ORCL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$175.07

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$175.07
Price
$523.91
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 199%MOS: $419.13

Fundamental Score

67/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

-2 vs previous

Trend Score

34/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is estimated at $523.91 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $175.07, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.14% long-term growth rate and a 9.14% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is estimated at $523.91 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $175.07, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.14% long-term growth rate and a 9.14% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$523.91
199.26% upside
20% margin of safety: $419.13
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.14%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.05%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

67/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
199.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
17.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.1% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
18
Net Debt / FCF
1.4x net debt to FCF
47
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
37.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
-2 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (1st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 22m ago
Sources: 227 (200 News · 27 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
162 news sentiment+2.2
4 layoffs-0.9
3 restructuring-0.7
3 upgrade headlines+0.4
3 margin pressure+0.4
9 earnings beat-0.3

Trend Details

34/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Price vs 21 EMA-10.5%
Distance from 52-Week High-46.7%
Price vs 50 EMA-7.6%
Price vs 21 EMA6 · -10.5%
Price vs 50 EMA17 · -7.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA74 · +3.2%
3M RS vs SPY59 · +2.2%
6M RS vs SPY19 · -12.8%
Distance from 52W High7 · -46.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Oracle Corporation is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 92% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a bullish fundamental score of 72. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows robust free cash flow growth and effective buybacks.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the company's cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.14%5 Year CAGR: 37.21%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$87,640$42,036$25,539$25,860$14,050$18,022$14,703$16,211$17,122$16,147$14,750$15,727$15,501$14,874$14,391$11,664$8,911$8,784$7,645$5,839

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Oracle Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Oracle CorporationTechnology

Oracle Corporation, a global technology giant, provides a comprehensive suite of enterprise information technology solutions worldwide. A core part of its portfolio comprises cloud-based software-as-a-service (SaaS) applications, including the Oracle Fusion Cloud suite covering enterprise resource planning (ERP), enterprise performance management (EPM), supply chain and manufacturing management (SCM), and human capital management (HCM). This also extends to specialized offerings like Oracle Advertising, the NetSuite application suite, and Oracle Fusion solutions for Sales, Service, and Marketing. Beyond these, Oracle develops cloud solutions tailored for various specific industries, alongside traditional application licenses and comprehensive license support services. Furthermore, the company's robust cloud and licensing business is underpinned by its infrastructure technologies. These include the flagship Oracle Database, the widely adopted Java programming language, and various middleware components such as development tools. Its advanced cloud infrastructure provides compute, storage, and networking capabilities, complemented by innovative services like the Oracle Autonomous Database, MySQL HeatWave, Internet-of-Things (IoT) platforms, digital assistants, and blockchain technology. Oracle also offers a range of hardware products and associated software. This encompasses Oracle engineered systems, enterprise servers, storage solutions, and specialized hardware for particular industries. Additionally, it provides virtualization software, operating systems, management software, and related hardware support. Complementing its product lines, Oracle delivers expert consulting and dedicated customer services. The company employs a direct sales model, reaching businesses across diverse sectors, government bodies, and educational institutions globally, while also leveraging an extensive network of indirect channels. Established in 1977, Oracle Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Austin, Texas.