Market Pulse59Neutral

Occidental Petroleum CorporationOpportunity Rank #31(OXY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$53.94

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$53.94
Price
$214.46
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 298%MOS: $171.57

Fundamental Score

73/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

55/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is estimated at $214.46 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $53.94, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.70% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is estimated at $214.46 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $53.94, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.70% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$214.46
▲ 297.59% upside
20% margin of safety: $171.57
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.70%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.98%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

73/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
297.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
29.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.0% vs WACC 9.0% (0.1x)
5
Net Debt / FCF
0.8x net debt to FCF
85
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (66th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 160 (141 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
124 news sentiment+3.0
2 earnings beat-0.4
3 downgrade headlines+0.4
11 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.1
3 analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

55/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+24.5%
Price vs 21 EMA-7.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+7.7%
Price vs 21 EMA12 · -7.7%
Price vs 50 EMA23 · -6.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA65 · +1.9%
3M RS vs SPY78 · +7.7%
6M RS vs SPY94 · +24.5%
Distance from 52W High60 · -19.9%

Investment Coach

Updated 23h ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Occidental Petroleum Corporation is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 294% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and an improving narrative. The company demonstrates robust free cash flow growth and effective buybacks, indicating potential for substantial shareholder returns.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may indicate returns are not currently exceeding the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.70%5 Year CAGR: 3.45%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$15,763$16,959$18,457$18,553$21,160$13,304$6,490$13,742$12,644$8,460$6,215$8,623$19,456$20,741$21,538$19,799$13,289$9,394$20,017$11,676$9,358

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Occidental Petroleum Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Occidental Petroleum CorporationEnergy

Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. It operates through three segments: Oil and Gas, Chemical, and Midstream and Marketing. The company's Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. Its Chemical segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals, including chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates, and calcium chloride; vinyls comprising vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride, and ethylene. The Midstream and Marketing segment gathers, processes, transports, stores, purchases, and markets oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. This segment also trades around its assets consisting of transportation and storage capacity; and invests in entities. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.