Market Pulse44Neutral

Paycom Software, Inc.Opportunity Rank #97(PAYC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$123.67

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$123.67
Price
$398.45
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 222%MOS: $318.76

Fundamental Score

83/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

18/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) is estimated at $398.45 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $123.67, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.10% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.63%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) is estimated at $398.45 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $123.67, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.10% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.63%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$398.45
222.19% upside
20% margin of safety: $318.76
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.10%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.62%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

83/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
222.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
14.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.6% vs WACC 10.0% (0.9x)
43
Net Debt / FCF
0.6x net debt to FCF
89
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
24.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (30th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 81%Updated: 18m ago
Sources: 34 (28 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
22 news sentiment+0.2
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Earnings beat+0.0
Macro headwinds+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

18/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-36.8%
Distance from 52-Week High-48.2%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-15.7%
Price vs 21 EMA15 · -6.7%
Price vs 50 EMA20 · -6.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA49 · -0.1%
3M RS vs SPY7 · -15.7%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -36.8%
Distance from 52W High4 · -48.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
Paycom Software, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 219.6% above its current price, supported by a strong fundamental score of 82 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 13.1%. Despite trailing its cost of capital, the company's robust free cash flow growth and buyback activity indicate potential for long-term value appreciation.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may pressure returns and valuation if it does not improve.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.10%5 Year CAGR: 16.87%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011
$971$950$731$682$502$446$321$317$245$190$143$60$37$34$17$24

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Paycom Software, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Paycom Software, Inc.Technology

Paycom Software, Inc., established in 1998 and headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, provides a comprehensive, cloud-based human capital management (HCM) platform. This software-as-a-service (SaaS) solution is specifically tailored for small to mid-sized businesses across the United States. It equips organizations with the essential functionality and analytical insights needed to oversee the complete employee journey, from the initial hiring process through to retirement. The robust HCM suite encompasses a wide array of applications across several critical HR domains. For talent acquisition and onboarding, it offers tools such as applicant tracking, candidate management, background checks, seamless onboarding processes, E-Verify compliance, and tax credit services. Time and labor management capabilities include precise time and attendance tracking, flexible scheduling with exchange options, efficient time-off request management, labor allocation, detailed reporting (including push reports), and advanced location-based features like geofencing, geotracking, and their proprietary Microfence Bluetooth technology. Payroll processing is streamlined through applications for improved employee transaction interfaces, comprehensive payroll and tax administration, direct payment options (Paycom Pay), expense management, mileage tracking (with fixed and variable rates), garnishment management, and GL concierge services. Talent development and performance management are supported by employee self-service portals, compensation budgeting, performance review systems, position management, Paycom learning modules, content subscriptions, and "my analytics" for predictive employment reporting. Furthermore, the platform integrates various other crucial functions. These include "Manager On-the-Go" for supervisors to approve time-off and expenses remotely, "Ask Here" for direct employee-to-HR communication, direct data exchange capabilities, and tools for document management and checklists. It also addresses compliance and benefits administration with features for government regulations, benefits enrollment (including carrier integration), COBRA administration, personnel action and performance discussion forms, surveys, and Affordable Care Act applications. A notable offering is "Clue," which provides a secure system for collecting, tracking, and managing employee vaccination and testing data.