Market Pulse59Neutral

Paycom Software, Inc.Opportunity Rank #26(PAYC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$138.43

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$138.43
Price
$399.00
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 188%MOS: $319.20

Fundamental Score

82/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

73/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

47/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) is estimated at $399.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $138.43, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.10% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.66%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) is estimated at $399.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $138.43, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.10% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.66%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$399.00
188.23% upside
20% margin of safety: $319.20
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.10%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.5%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

82/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
188.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
12.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.5% vs WACC 10.0% (0.9x)
43
Net Debt / FCF
0.6x net debt to FCF
89
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
24.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

73/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:High (99th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 45 (28 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
18 news sentiment+1.3
Earnings beat+0.4
Macro headwinds+0.4
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
17 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

47/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-34.4%
Distance from 52-Week High-48.5%
Price vs 21 EMA+6.4%
Price vs 21 EMA83 · +6.4%
Price vs 50 EMA77 · +6.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA49 · -0.1%
3M RS vs SPY41 · -2.3%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -34.4%
Distance from 52W High3 · -48.5%

Investment Coach

Updated 22h ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Paycom Software, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 215% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and an improving narrative. Despite trailing its cost of capital, the company's robust free cash flow growth and buyback activity indicate potential for substantial upside.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's return on invested capital remaining below its weighted average cost of capital, which could limit value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.10%5 Year CAGR: 16.90%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011
$973$950$727$682$502$446$321$317$245$190$143$60$37$34$17$24

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Paycom Software, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Paycom Software, Inc.Technology

Paycom Software, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solution delivered as software-as-a-service for small to mid-sized companies in the United States. It offers functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the employment life cycle from recruitment to retirement. The company's HCM solution provides a suite of applications in the areas of talent acquisition, including applicant tracking, candidate tracker, background checks, on-boarding, e-verify, and tax credit services; and time and labor management, such as time and attendance, scheduling/schedule exchange, time-off requests, labor allocation, labor management reports/push reporting, and geofencing/geotracking, and Microfence, a proprietary Bluetooth. Its HCM solution also offers payroll applications comprising better employee transaction interface, payroll and tax management, Paycom pay, expense management, mileage tracker/fixed and variable rates, garnishment management, and GL concierge applications; and talent management applications that include employee self-service, compensation budgeting, performance management, position management, and Paycom learning and content subscriptions, as well as my analytics, which offer employment predictor reporting. In addition, its HCM solution provides manager on-the-go that gives supervisors and managers the ability to perform a variety of tasks, such as approving time-off requests and expense reimbursements; direct data exchange; ask here, a tool for direct line of communication to ask work-related questions; document and checklist; government and compliance; benefits administration/benefits to carrier; COBRA administration; personnel action and performance discussion forms; surveys; and affordable care act applications, as well as Clue, which securely collect, track, and manage the vaccination and testing data of the workforce. Paycom Software, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.