PGR

$207.56

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, 7.10% trendline growth.
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$1,348.20

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

$1,078.56
419.64% upside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
10.09%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
81
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
419.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
13.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.1% vs WACC 11.0% (0.9x)
46
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
22.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.
Narrative Score
66
Improving
Weighted across 6 recent drivers · Last 30 daysVs 6-Month Baseline: Above Avg (65th pct)
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 97 (News 75 · Analyst 22)
Drivers
39 news sentiment+0.9
3 earnings beat+0.5
32 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Legal risk+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
Other Metrics
P/E13.3
Profit Margin12.7%
Owner Earnings$10.40b
One Dollar Premise28.00%
Debt/Equity2.83
Current Ratio7.09
PEG5.250
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
$1,775$1,690$1,655$1,451$1,420$1,615$1,419$1,564$1,760$1,618$2,162$2,487$3,601$6,019$5,898$6,682$7,518$6,557$10,391$16,473
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Progressive Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Progressive CorporationFinancial Services

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.