Market Pulse44Neutral

Prologis, Inc.Opportunity Rank #265(PLD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Real Estate

Current Price

$143.83

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$143.83
Price
$75.75
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 47%MOS: $60.60

Fundamental Score

22/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

56/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Prologis, Inc. (PLD) is estimated at $75.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $143.83, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.77% long-term growth rate and an 8.60% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Prologis, Inc. (PLD) is estimated at $75.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $143.83, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.77% long-term growth rate and an 8.60% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$75.75
▼ -47.33% downside
20% margin of safety: $60.60
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.77%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.37%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

22/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
47.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.9% trailing FCF yield
49
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.4% vs WACC 8.0% (0.2x)
9
Net Debt / FCF
6.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
4.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (11th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 45m ago
Sources: 61 (49 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
33 news sentiment+1.1
Analyst downgrades-0.2
13 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.1
2 earnings beat+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

56/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-3.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+1.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-2.4%
Price vs 21 EMA49 · -0.2%
Price vs 50 EMA56 · +1.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA61 · +1.3%
3M RS vs SPY40 · -2.4%
6M RS vs SPY54 · +1.4%
Distance from 52W High93 · -3.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Prologis, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price nearly 46% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. Elevated leverage and a bearish fundamental score further undermine its investment appeal.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's elevated net debt relative to free cash flow could exacerbate financial strain if operational performance does not improve.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.77%5 Year CAGR: 8.63%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$5,286$5,008$4,912$5,373$4,677$3,495$4,185$2,586$2,719$1,798$1,519$1,047$783$568$544$1,289$526$645$1,517$1,598$1,822

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Prologis, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Prologis, Inc.Real Estate

Prologis, Inc. is the undisputed global leader in logistics real estate, strategically focusing its operations on high-barrier, high-growth markets. As of December 31, 2020, the company's extensive portfolio spanned approximately 984 million square feet (91 million square meters) of both existing properties and planned development projects, located across 19 countries. This significant footprint is managed through a blend of wholly-owned assets and co-investment ventures. Prologis leases its contemporary logistics facilities to a diverse client base of roughly 5,500 customers, primarily serving business-to-business (B2B) and retail/online fulfillment needs.