Market Pulse44Neutral

Philip Morris International Inc.Opportunity Rank #281(PM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$173.17

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$173.17
Price
$121.71
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 30%MOS: $97.37

Fundamental Score

41/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

43/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is estimated at $121.71 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $173.17, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.10% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.98%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is estimated at $121.71 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $173.17, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.10% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.98%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$121.71
▼ -29.72% downside
20% margin of safety: $97.37
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.10%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
9%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

41/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
29.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
5.1% trailing FCF yield
77
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 9.0% vs WACC 7.0% (1.3x)
64
Net Debt / FCF
3.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
5.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
53
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (13th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 30m ago
Sources: 43 (37 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
26 news sentiment+0.5
9 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
Margin pressure-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

43/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-8.6%
Distance from 52-Week High-9.7%
Price vs 21 EMA-3.3%
Price vs 21 EMA30 · -3.3%
Price vs 50 EMA41 · -1.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA62 · +1.5%
3M RS vs SPY19 · -8.6%
6M RS vs SPY45 · -1.7%
Distance from 52W High81 · -9.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Philip Morris International Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 33.5% relative to its estimated fair value of $121.71, with weak fundamentals reflected in a bearish score of 41 despite a ROIC that exceeds its cost of capital by 2.2 points. The company's narrative score is stable but broken, indicating no immediate improvement in outlook.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the stock price fails to correct downward to a more attractive valuation level, undermining potential returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Significant shifts in the narrative score direction indicating fundamental changes.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.10%5 Year CAGR: 1.51%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$13,702$13,802$13,661$10,525$11,880$12,715$10,414$10,942$10,914$10,460$9,249$8,825$8,892$11,335$10,477$11,426$10,150$8,599$9,034$6,661$7,122

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Philip Morris International Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Philip Morris International Inc.Consumer Defensive

Philip Morris International Inc. functions as a prominent tobacco enterprise, actively working toward a smoke-free future. The company is strategically diversifying its long-term product range to incorporate items beyond traditional tobacco and nicotine. Its primary business involves both conventional cigarettes and an expanding array of smoke-free alternatives, such as innovative heat-not-burn devices, vapor products, and oral nicotine solutions. These offerings are distributed in markets worldwide, with the exception of the United States. The smoke-free portfolio includes brands like HEETS (encompassing Creations, Dimensions, Marlboro variants), Parliament HeatSticks, and TEREA, in addition to KT&G-licensed brands Fiit and Miix. For conventional cigarettes, the company sells internationally recognized brands such as Marlboro, Parliament, Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark, and Philip Morris. Regionally, it also owns major cigarette brands like Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A, and Sampoerna U in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines. PMI's smoke-free innovations are currently available across 71 global markets. Established in 1987, Philip Morris International Inc. is headquartered in New York, New York.