PONY

$13.08

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, -76.51% trendline growth.
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$1.03

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

$0.82
-93.70% downside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
-22.43%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
6
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
93.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-4.3% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -22.4% vs WACC 7.0% (-3.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
2.1x net debt to FCF
28
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.
Narrative Score
52
Weak
Weighted across 3 recent drivers · Last 30 daysVs 6-Month Baseline: Below Avg (32th pct)
Trend: StableConfidence: 58%Updated: 5h ago
Sources: 21 (News 21)
Drivers
16 news sentiment+0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.0
4 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
Other Metrics
P/E-18.7
Profit Margin-312.5%
Owner Earnings-$341.21m
One Dollar Premise0.00%
Debt/Equity0.10
Current Ratio9.12
PEG-0.592
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
2021202220232024
-$121-$143-$110-$216
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Pony AI Inc. American Depositary SharesIndustrials

Pony AI Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the autonomous mobility in the People's Republic of China and the United States. The company provides robotruck services, such as transportation services to the logistics platforms. It also offers robotaxi services, including a suite of AV engineering solutions comprising AV software deployment and maintenance, vehicle integration and engineering, and road testing; and fare-charging robotaxi services. In addition, the company offers personally-owned vehicle intelligent solutions, including intelligent driving software solutions, proprietary vehicle domain controller products, and data analytics tools; vehicle integration services, software development, and licensing services; and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) products and services to enhance road safety. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.