Market Pulse59Neutral

D-Wave Quantum Inc.Opportunity Rank #284(QBTS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$22.00

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$22.00
Price
$2.31
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 90%MOS: $1.85

Fundamental Score

16/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

65/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

61/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) is estimated at $2.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $22.00, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.70% long-term growth rate and a 12.02% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) is estimated at $2.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $22.00, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.70% long-term growth rate and a 12.02% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$2.31
▼ -89.50% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.85
Years: 10Growth Rate: -47.70%
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Fundamental Details

16/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
89.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-0.8% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
12.9x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-52.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

65/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (32nd pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 83 (79 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
71 news sentiment+1.3
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

61/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-49.6%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-36.1%
Price vs 50 EMA+17.0%
Price vs 21 EMA96 · +13.1%
Price vs 50 EMA96 · +17.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA76 · +3.4%
3M RS vs SPY59 · +2.1%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -36.1%
Distance from 52W High1 · -49.6%

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
D-Wave Quantum Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price nearly 89.4% above the estimated fair value, supported by a bearish fundamental score and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite a moderately supportive narrative score, the company's financial health and cash flow trends remain weak.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's continued inability to generate returns above its weighted average cost of capital, which could further deteriorate its valuation and financial stability.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -47.70%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -51.25%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020
-$68-$68-$41-$60-$45-$33-$28

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates D-Wave Quantum Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

D-Wave Quantum Inc.Technology

D-Wave Quantum Inc. develops and delivers quantum computing systems, software, and services worldwide. The company offers Advantage, a fifth-generation quantum computer; Launch, a quantum computing onboarding service; Ocean a full suite of open-source programming tools; and Leap, a cloud-based service that provides real-time access to a live quantum computer, as well as access to Advantage, hybrid solvers, the Ocean software development kit, live code, demos, learning resources, and a vibrant developer community. It also provides D-Wave Launch, a quantum professional service that guides enterprises from problem discovery through in-production application deployment. The company's quantum solutions are used in artificial intelligence, materials sciences, drug discovery, scheduling, cybersecurity, fault detection, and financial modeling. It serves manufacturing and logistics, financial services, life sciences, and other industries. D-Wave Quantum Inc. is based in Burnaby, Canada.