Market Pulse44Neutral

QUALCOMM IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #91(QCOM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$221.90

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$221.90
Price
$197.35
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 11%MOS: $157.88

Fundamental Score

70/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

68/100
Improving

-2 vs previous

Trend Score

86/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) is estimated at $197.35 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $221.90, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.04% long-term growth rate and a 10.49% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) is estimated at $197.35 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $221.90, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.04% long-term growth rate and a 10.49% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$197.35
▼ -11.06% downside
20% margin of safety: $157.88
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.04%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.9%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

70/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
11.1% premium to price
32
FCF Yield
6.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.9% vs WACC 9.0% (0.9x)
44
Net Debt / FCF
0.3x net debt to FCF
93
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
17.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount.

Narrative Details

68/100
Improving
-2 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (43rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 220 (200 News · 20 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
183 news sentiment+1.7
11 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Layoffs-0.0
4 upgrade headlines+0.0
Margin pressure+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

86/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+56.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+8.7%
Price vs 50 EMA+11.6%
Price vs 21 EMA66 · +2.7%
Price vs 50 EMA90 · +11.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA94 · +8.7%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +56.0%
6M RS vs SPY88 · +17.9%
Distance from 52W High77 · -11.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 11d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
QUALCOMM Incorporated shows strong fundamentals with a bullish score of 74 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 8.0%, supported by consistent buybacks and solid free cash flow growth. However, its returns currently trail the estimated cost of capital, and valuation is near fair value, suggesting a cautious approach is warranted.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating the company is not generating sufficient returns above its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained profitability.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.04%5 Year CAGR: 5.28%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$16,068$15,204$13,243$12,749$11,358$12,424$7,221$8,173$4,679$5,383$7,939$6,500$10,072$9,826$7,282$5,493$4,502$7,933$4,955$4,629$3,938

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates QUALCOMM Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

QUALCOMM IncorporatedTechnology

QUALCOMM Incorporated is a company dedicated to developing and bringing to market fundamental technologies crucial for the global wireless communication industry. Its operations are structured into three primary segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT), Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL), and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI). The QCT division specializes in creating and supplying integrated circuits and system software, leveraging 3G, 4G, 5G, and other advanced wireless technologies. These components are essential for a range of products, including those used for wireless voice and data communication, networking, application processing, multimedia, and global positioning. The QTL segment generates revenue by licensing its extensive intellectual property portfolio, which encompasses various patent rights vital for the manufacture and sale of wireless devices, particularly those adhering to standards like CDMA2000, WCDMA, LTE, and OFDMA-based 5G. Through its QSI segment, Qualcomm invests in early-stage companies across diverse sectors such as 5G, artificial intelligence, automotive, consumer electronics, enterprise solutions, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things, aiming to support the introduction of new products and services for both existing and emerging communication applications. Furthermore, the company provides development services and related products to United States government agencies and their contractors. Founded in 1985, QUALCOMM Incorporated maintains its headquarters in San Diego, California.