Market Pulse45Neutral

QuantumScape CorporationOpportunity Rank #299(QS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$7.61

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$7.61
Price
$1.30
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 83%MOS: $1.04

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

70/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

40/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of QuantumScape Corporation (QS) is estimated at $1.30 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $7.61, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -59.90% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of QuantumScape Corporation (QS) is estimated at $1.30 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $7.61, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -59.90% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.30
▼ -82.92% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.04
Years: 10Growth Rate: -59.90%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-39.29%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
82.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-4.3% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -39.3% vs WACC 7.0% (-5.6x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
4.5x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-64.0% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

70/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (91st pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 70%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 31 (31 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
25 news sentiment+1.7
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
Downgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0

Trend Details

40/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-58.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-40.0%
Price vs 21 EMA-1.4%
Price vs 21 EMA41 · -1.4%
Price vs 50 EMA42 · -1.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA48 · -0.3%
3M RS vs SPY53 · +0.7%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -40.0%
Distance from 52W High0 · -58.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 11d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
QuantumScape Corporation is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 81% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor capital efficiency and financial health.
Key Risk
Continued poor financial performance and negative returns relative to cost of capital could further erode shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -59.90%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -65.38%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
-$201-$206-$212-$156-$59-$1-$37-$32-$28

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates QuantumScape Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

QuantumScape CorporationConsumer Cyclical

QuantumScape Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, specializes in the advancement and market launch of innovative solid-state lithium-metal batteries. These cutting-edge power solutions are primarily engineered for electric vehicles (EVs) but also serve a range of other uses within the United States. The company, established in 2010, has its main corporate office located in San Jose, California.