Market Pulse44Neutral

Ferrari N.V.Opportunity Rank #49(RACE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$348.42

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$348.42
Price
$934.98
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 168%MOS: $747.98

Fundamental Score

83/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

56/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

41/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Ferrari N.V. (RACE) is estimated at $934.98 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $348.42, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.42%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Ferrari N.V. (RACE) is estimated at $934.98 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $348.42, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.42%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$934.98
168.35% upside
20% margin of safety: $747.98
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.17%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.06%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

83/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
168.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
10.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.1% vs WACC 10.0% (0.8x)
40
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
97
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
29.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

56/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (47th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 54m ago
Sources: 87 (85 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
66 news sentiment+0.3
14 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.1
Demand slowdown+0.0
4 earnings beat-0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

41/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-15.5%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-4.0%
Distance from 52-Week High-32.7%
Price vs 21 EMA44 · -1.0%
Price vs 50 EMA50 · +0.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA59 · +1.1%
3M RS vs SPY34 · -4.0%
6M RS vs SPY15 · -15.5%
Distance from 52W High35 · -32.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
Ferrari N.V. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 180% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high free cash flow yield and robust buybacks. Despite trailing its cost of capital, the company shows promising cash flow growth and a bullish fundamental score of 83.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns currently do not cover the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.17%5 Year CAGR: 22.76%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$6,435$6,514$3,332$2,954$2,523$2,308$1,768$1,895$1,797$1,205$1,539$1,215$864$828$824

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ferrari N.V.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ferrari N.V.Consumer Cyclical

Ferrari N.V. is a renowned automotive manufacturer primarily engaged in the creation, engineering, production, and sale of an exclusive range of high-performance luxury automobiles. Its extensive vehicle lineup features diverse models, including traditional sports cars, Grand Tourers (GTs), specialized series editions, ultra-exclusive limited-edition hypercars, bespoke one-off vehicles, track-specific designs, and its distinctive Icona series. Beyond car manufacturing, the company also supplies motorsport vehicles, essential components like spare parts and engines, and delivers comprehensive after-sales services such as vehicle repair, maintenance, and restoration. Expanding its brand influence, Ferrari N.V. strategically licenses its iconic marque to various producers and retailers of upscale lifestyle merchandise. This also extends to prominent leisure destinations, including the Ferrari World theme park in Abu Dhabi, UAE, and Ferrari Land Portaventura in Europe. The company further diversifies its operations by offering direct and indirect financing and leasing solutions to both individual customers and dealership partners. Additionally, Ferrari N.V. oversees the management of racetracks, curates and maintains two dedicated museums in Maranello and Modena, Italy, and markets its own collection of branded apparel and accessories through specialized monobrand boutiques. As of December 31, 2021, Ferrari's global retail presence comprised 30 branded stores, with 14 operating as franchised outlets and 16 as company-owned locations. Its products are also distributed globally through a network of 172 authorized dealers, collectively operating 191 sales points, and are available for purchase directly via its official e-commerce platform, store.ferrari.com. Established in 1947, Ferrari N.V. maintains its headquarters in Maranello, Italy.