Market Pulse59Neutral

EchoStar CorporationOpportunity Rank #273(SATS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$122.62

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$122.62
Price
-$30.24
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 125%MOS: -$24.19

Fundamental Score

10/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

79/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of EchoStar Corporation (SATS) is estimated at $-30.24 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $122.62, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.61% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.49%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of EchoStar Corporation (SATS) is estimated at $-30.24 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $122.62, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.61% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.49%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$30.24
▼ -124.66% downside
20% margin of safety: -$24.19
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.61%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-11.72%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

10/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
124.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.5% trailing FCF yield
11
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -11.7% vs WACC 11.0% (-1.1x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
28.6x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (40th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 46 (45 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
33 news sentiment+0.2
11 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
Legal risk-0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

79/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+67.0%
Distance from 52-Week High-5.9%
Price vs 50 EMA+6.2%
Price vs 21 EMA70 · +3.4%
Price vs 50 EMA77 · +6.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA71 · +2.7%
3M RS vs SPY77 · +7.1%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +67.0%
Distance from 52W High88 · -5.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
EchoStar Corporation (SATS) is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 121% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company exhibits elevated leverage and declining free cash flow growth, indicating financial stress.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's sustained negative return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, which may continue to erode shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the company’s narrative score
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.61%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.54%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$866$866$2,798$5,534$6,672$1,104$982$1,139$1,321$1,337$1,525$1,506$1,520$884$1,117$824$601$410$343$56-$19

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates EchoStar Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

EchoStar CorporationTechnology

EchoStar Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides networking technologies and services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Hughes and EchoStar Satellite Services (ESS). The Hughes segment offers broadband network technologies, managed services, equipment, hardware, satellite services, and communications solutions to government and enterprise customers. The segment also designs, provides, and installs gateway and terminal equipment to customers for other satellite systems. In addition, it designs, develops, constructs, and provides telecommunication networks comprising satellite ground segment systems and terminals to mobile system operators and enterprise customers. Further, this segment designs, provides, and installs gateway and terminal equipment to customers for other satellite systems, as well as offers satellite ground segment systems and terminals for other satellite systems, including mobile system operators. The ESS segment provides satellite services using its owned and leased in-orbit satellites and related licenses to offer satellite services on a full-time and/or occasional-use basis to the U.S. government service providers, internet service providers, broadcast news organizations, content providers, and private enterprise customers. It serves customers in North America, South and Central America, Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe, India, and the Middle East. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.