Market Pulse50Neutral

The Sherwin-Williams CompanyOpportunity Rank #228(SHW) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$313.95

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$313.95
Price
$267.59
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 15%MOS: $214.07

Fundamental Score

36/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) is estimated at $267.59 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $313.95, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.41% long-term growth rate and an 8.89% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) is estimated at $267.59 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $313.95, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.41% long-term growth rate and an 8.89% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$267.59
-14.77% downside
20% margin of safety: $214.07
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.41%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.71%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

36/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
14.8% premium to price
25
FCF Yield
5.5% trailing FCF yield
87
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
21
Net Debt / FCF
3.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
2.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (73rd pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 42 (38 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
23 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
Upgrade headlines+0.2
14 news sentiment+0.1
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 23h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 62%
Thesis
The Sherwin-Williams Company currently exhibits weak fundamentals with returns trailing its estimated cost of capital, despite a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.6%. Its valuation is near fair value, suggesting investors should exercise patience rather than initiate new positions now.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's return on invested capital remaining below its weighted average cost of capital, which could continue to pressure shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend or fundamental score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.41%5 Year CAGR: 10.18%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$4,249$4,249$4,223$4,410$2,564$2,617$3,712$2,650$2,195$2,107$1,548$1,682$1,282$1,250$1,045$890$832$951$993$1,040$1,026

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Sherwin-Williams Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Sherwin-Williams CompanyBasic Materials

The Sherwin-Williams Company develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells paints, coatings, and related products to professional, industrial, commercial, and retail customers. It operates through three segments: The Americas Group, Consumer Brands Group, and Performance Coatings Group. The Americas Group segment offers architectural paints and coatings, and protective and marine products, as well as OEM product finishes and related products for architectural and industrial paint contractors, and do-it-yourself homeowners. The Consumer Brands Group segment supplies a portfolio of branded and private-label architectural paints, stains, varnishes, industrial products, wood finishes products, wood preservatives, applicators, corrosion inhibitors, aerosols, caulks, and adhesives to retailers and distributors. The Performance Coatings Group segment develops and sells industrial coatings for wood finishing and general industrial applications, automotive refinish products, protective and marine coatings, coil coatings, packaging coatings, and performance-based resins and colorants. It serves retailers, dealers, jobbers, licensees, and other third-party distributors through its branches and direct sales staff, as well as through outside sales representatives. The company has operations primarily in the North and South America, the Caribbean, Europe, Asia, and Australia. As of February 17, 2022, it operated approximately 5,000 company-operated stores and facilities. The Sherwin-Williams Company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.