Market Pulse44Neutral

Summit Therapeutics Inc.Opportunity Rank #323(SMMT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$14.28

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$14.28
Price
$0.28
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 98%MOS: $0.22

Fundamental Score

20/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

12/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) is estimated at $0.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $14.28, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -51.28% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.74%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) is estimated at $0.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $14.28, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -51.28% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.74%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$0.28
▼ -98.04% downside
20% margin of safety: $0.22
Years: 10Growth Rate: -51.28%
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Fundamental Details

20/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
98.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-2.6% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
1.6x net debt to FCF
42
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-66.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (74th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 76%Updated: 8m ago
Sources: 29 (25 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
19 news sentiment+0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.1
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
4 legal risk+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

12/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-51.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-22.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-8.7%
Price vs 21 EMA22 · -5.0%
Price vs 50 EMA6 · -13.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA5 · -8.7%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -22.7%
6M RS vs SPY5 · -26.9%
Distance from 52W High0 · -51.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Summit Therapeutics Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price nearly 98% above the estimated fair value of $0.29, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial performance and limited growth prospects.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued deterioration of financial fundamentals, including sustained negative free cash flow and a widening gap between ROIC and WACC, which could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -51.28%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -66.40%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
-$286-$239-$113-$61-$33-$54-$35-$35-$15-$20$15-$24-$17-$10-$5-$4-$4-$3-$13-$12-$3

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Summit Therapeutics Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Summit Therapeutics Inc.Healthcare

Summit Therapeutics Inc. is a biopharmaceutical firm dedicated to discovering, developing, and commercializing therapeutic solutions, primarily targeting infectious diseases across the United States and Latin America. The company's clinical development pipeline is heavily concentrated on therapies for Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI). Its flagship product candidate, ridinilazole, is an orally administered small molecule antibiotic currently advancing through Phase III clinical trials as a treatment for CDI. Beyond its lead asset, Summit Therapeutics is also progressing SMT-738, designed to combat multidrug-resistant infections, notably carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE). Additionally, its DDS-04 series represents a potential therapeutic avenue for various infections caused by the Enterobacteriaceae family of bacteria. Established in 2003, the company maintains its headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts.