Market Pulse50Neutral

NuScale Power CorporationOpportunity Rank #319(SMR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Utilities

Current Price

$11.70

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$11.70
Price
$6.38
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 45%MOS: $5.10

Fundamental Score

4/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

67/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) is estimated at $6.38 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $11.70, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -64.80% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) is estimated at $6.38 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $11.70, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -64.80% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$6.38
▼ -45.46% downside
20% margin of safety: $5.10
Years: 10Growth Rate: -64.80%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-111.7%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

4/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
45.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-13.2% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -111.7% vs WACC 7.0% (-16.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
2.7x net debt to FCF
8
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-70.1% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

67/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (91st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 207 (200 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
150 legal risk+0.8
37 news sentiment+0.4
Upgrade headlines+0.3
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
3 downgrade headlines+0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 81%
Thesis
NuScale Power Corporation is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 44.6% above the estimated fair value, supported by a strong narrative score but weak fundamentals. The company exhibits poor returns with a negative ROIC spread versus WACC and declining free cash flow growth, indicating operational challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's continued inability to improve its return on invested capital relative to its cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -64.80%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -69.24%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$459-$459-$109-$182-$146-$97-$44-$65

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates NuScale Power Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

NuScale Power CorporationUtilities

NuScale Power Corporation develops and sells modular light water reactor nuclear power plants to supply energy for electrical generation, district heating, desalination, hydrogen production, and other process heat applications. It offers NuScale Power Module, a water reactor that can generate 77 megawatts of electricity (MWe); The VOYGR-12 power plant that can generate 924 MWe; and four-module VOYGR-4 and six-module VOYGR-6 plants, as well as other configurations based on customer needs. NuScale Power Corporation was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Portland, Oregon. NuScale Power Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Fluor Enterprises, Inc.