Market Pulse59Neutral

NuScale Power CorporationOpportunity Rank #314(SMR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Utilities

Current Price

$12.56

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$12.56
Price
$1.81
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 86%MOS: $1.45

Fundamental Score

8/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

-7 vs previous

Trend Score

31/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) is estimated at $1.81 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $12.56, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -67.07% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) is estimated at $1.81 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $12.56, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -67.07% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.81
▼ -85.59% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.45
Years: 10Growth Rate: -67.07%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-106.61%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

8/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
85.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-20.1% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -106.6% vs WACC 7.0% (-15.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
1.2x net debt to FCF
54
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-73.1% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
-7 vs previous · +3 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (5th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 209 (200 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Earnings miss-0.6
58 news sentiment+0.4
12 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
128 legal risk+0.2
Downgrade headlines+0.0
9 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

31/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-76.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-75.8%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-35.2%
Price vs 21 EMA73 · +4.0%
Price vs 50 EMA50 · -0.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA21 · -4.0%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -35.2%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -75.8%
Distance from 52W High0 · -76.5%

Investment Coach

Updated 16h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
NuScale Power Corporation is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 84.7% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are substantially below its cost of capital, indicating poor financial performance and a deteriorating business narrative.
Key Risk
The primary risk is continued financial deterioration and failure to improve returns on invested capital relative to the weighted average cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the company narrative and fundamental score
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -67.07%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -72.66%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$751-$459-$109-$182-$146-$97-$44-$65

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates NuScale Power Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

NuScale Power CorporationUtilities

NuScale Power Corporation develops and sells modular light water reactor nuclear power plants to supply energy for electrical generation, district heating, desalination, hydrogen production, and other process heat applications. It offers NuScale Power Module, a water reactor that can generate 77 megawatts of electricity (MWe); The VOYGR-12 power plant that can generate 924 MWe; and four-module VOYGR-4 and six-module VOYGR-6 plants, as well as other configurations based on customer needs. NuScale Power Corporation was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Portland, Oregon. NuScale Power Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Fluor Enterprises, Inc.